3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think
Deloitte predicts, in line with the industry consensus, that in 2015 nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a dollar value of $1.6 billion, representing 100% unit growth and no more than 80% growth in dollars versus 2014. But that’s not the interesting part of the prediction ...
The Internet of Things really is things, not people
Deloitte predicts that in 2015 one billion wireless Internet of Things (IoT) devices will be shipped, up 60% from 2014, leading to an installed base of 2.8 billion devices. Read more about this prediction.
Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum
Deloitte predicts that by end-2015, five percent of the base of 600-650 million near-field communication (NFC) equipped phones will be used at least once a month to make contactless in-store payments at retail outlets. Read more of this prediction.
Nanosats take off, but they don't take over
Deloitte predicts that by the end of 2015 over 500 additional nanosats will be in orbit. Prior to 2014, only 75 nanosats had ever been launched, so the prediction calls for a 400% increase. Read additional insights about this prediction.
The connectivity chasms deepen: the growing gap in broadband speeds
Deloitte predicts that in developed countries, the average broadband speeds obtained by the top decile will be 5x or greater than the lowest decile. Read the additional insights in this prediction.
Click and collect booms in Europe
Deloitte predicts that the number of click and collect locations in Europe will reach half a million in 2015, a twenty percent increase on the previous year. Read more insights on this prediction.
One billion smartphone upgrades
Deloitte predicts that one billion smartphones will be purchased as upgrades for the first time in 2015, generating over $300 billion in sales. We expect smartphone upgrade volumes to continue increasing through 2018, and possibly beyond. Read more of this prediction.
Smartphone batteries: better but no breakthrough
Deloitte predicts that the rechargeable, lithium ion (Li-Ion) battery technology used in all smartphones will improve only modestly in 2015.
Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television
Deloitte predicts that in 2015 total time spent watching short-form (under 20 minutes’ duration) video online will represent under three percent of all video watched on all screens. Learn more about this prediction here.
The re-enterprization of IT
Deloitte predicts that in 2015 the impetus for IT adoption will swing back to the enterprise market following a decade of consumer-led technological change.
The 'generation that won’t spend' is spending a lot on media content
Deloitte predicts that North American millennials will spend over $62 billion on media content in 2015.
Print is alive and well—at least for books
Deloitte predicts that in 2015 print will represent more than 80% of all book sales in dollars worldwide. In the US, the world’s largest book market, the figure is just under 80%, but the percentage of print is higher in other developed world countries, and even more so in the developing world.
Drones: high-profile and niche
TMT Predictions 2015
Deloitte predicts that in 2015, the active base of non-military drones costing $200 or more should exceed one million units for the first time.
Aerial drones have a tremendous number of potential applications, particularly for enterprise and government. However, Deloitte does not expect 2015 to be a breakthrough year for drones.
We predict that in 2015 the active base of non-military drones costing $200 or more should exceed one million units for the first time. We expect sales of non-military drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs), to be about 300,000 units in 2015, with the majority being bought by consumers or prosumers. We expect total industry revenues to be $200-$400 million dollars in 2015 (equivalent to the list price of a single, mid-sized passenger jet).
Three key factors are likely to limit drone adoption in the short and medium term:
- Drones crash. Drones require significant skill to fly and are prone to crashes, which can be both expensive and potentially dangerous.
- Regulation is uncertain. In some markets, regulation is imminent, while in others, drones come under the same rules as apply to remote controlled aircraft. Also, the legality of flying drones has already been the subject of litigation, and this may continue through 2015 and beyond.
- Enterprises will deploy drones by the dozens, not the thousands. Drones are cheaper than helicopters, but more expensive than conventional terrestrial vehicles for many enterprise tasks. Thus, we do not expect drones to be deployed on a massive scale to replace existing vehicles.
This is not to say that drones are not useful or compelling. We expect drones will have multiple industrial and civil government applications, building upon the diverse uses they are already being put to. Any task requiring aerial inspection could be undertaken by a camera equipped drone, transmitting footage to ground staff in real time. Enterprises should examine every potential application of aerial drones while recognizing their limitations: these are lightweight, battery-powered devices, many with modest payloads and short ranges.
Regulators considering how best to incorporate drones into existing air space will need to balance the many positive contributions they can make, as well as the obvious negative externalities they can inflict. An irresponsibly piloted semi-professional two kilogram drone, whose battery expires in mid-flight above a crowd, may cause serious injury. Conversely, a drone deployed on search and rescue missions may save lives.
Drones: high-profile and niche
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