A strategic scenario analysis
It’s 2016. The unthinkable has happened – the UK is no longer part of the European Union. What form will the relationship with the UK take? How will the EU develop? And what opportunities and challenges will emerge for German companies from this new setting? Let’s look into the future and ask some business leaders for their personal experiences. Here are four possible status reports from the year 2025.
What are plausible scenarios for the future?
Scenario 1: All back to start
The countries in Europe agree on the lowest common denominator: free trade. A world without the euro but at least with a common customs union. The German industry suffers from the dictates of standards and guidelines of the large economic areas USA and China.
Scenario 2: The European Federation
With the abolition of the UK blocker, the European integration process is back on track. The single market remains intact and rapidly concluded agreements regulate free trade with the UK; Companies are benefiting from the first successes of the structural reforms of the savings policy in the Southern States and the increasing purchasing power in the EU.
Scenario 3: The European fortress
With the UK, a strong voice for the European austerity policy has been overthrown - in the core countries of Europe, the advocates of the transfer union have moved inward and protectionism outward. Exporting nations suffer from the protection tariffs with the UK; Companies fear high costs at the location Germany.
Scenario 4: The busted dream
The project of European integration has failed and the national states are back. London, Paris and Berlin focus on bilateral agreements with the largest economic areas, albeit from positions weakened by foreign policy. Multinational companies suffer from political instability.