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General practitioner workforce report 2019
Analysis of GP workforce to 2030
Deloitte Access Economics was commissioned by Cornerstone Health to conduct an analysis of the GP workforce from 2019 to 2030, and determine whether there would be an under or over supply of GPs in Australia.
The forecasting undertaken for this report has identified that both urban and regional areas will become progressively undersupplied over the ten years to 2030, resulting in a deficit of 9,298 full time GPs or 24.7% of the GP workforce by 2030. The deficit is expected to more pronounced in urban areas (31.7%) compared to regional areas (12.7%).
The supply and demand projections presented in this report start from an assumed position of initial equilibrium in both urban and regional areas. Thus, future movements in supply and demand are relative to the initial position, and the analysis is undertaken holding all other factors constant. This report does not make a judgment on the adequacy of the current supply of GP services; rather it looks at the direction of future demand and supply pressures for the GP workforce relative to the current position. It is important to note that a market economy such as Australia tends to adjust dynamically to changes in supply and demand to reallocate resources using price signals.
Published: December 2019