WA Economic Outlook

Analysis

WA Economic Outlook - December 2017

Almost done with the downturn

The WA Economic Outlook is a summary of the Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook publication with a specific focus on the Western Australian economy.

WA Economic Outlook - December 2017

Talk of economic recovery in WA might seem premature given recent economic data. However, there is cautious optimism as WA begins to turn a corner.

  • In mid-November, estimates of Gross State Product (or GSP, a measure of total economic output) for 2016-17 showed the WA economy had contracted by 2.7% in real terms. This ended a 26-year consecutive run of economic growth in WA since State GSP accounts began.
  • Although GSP fell for the first time in a long time in 2016-17, State Final Demand declined by a record high 7.2% in 2016-17, marking four consecutive years of contraction.
  • However, State Final demand rose in the first quarter of 2017-18, while employment, business investment, exports and housing are also showing encouraging signs. Those green shoots are yet to flow through to other parts of the economy though.
  • Sustained growth in other economic indicators, such as household consumption, are needed before we can confidently say the bad times are behind us.
  • Growth will be slow and steady in the meantime. We expect GSP to rise by 1.7% in 2018, followed by growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 3% in 2020.
WA Economic Outlook - December 2017
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