Australia’s leading economic forecaster has been saved
Australia’s leading economic forecaster
18 June 2015: Deloitte Access Economics’ position as one of the country’s leading economic forecasters has been confirmed, being named Australia’s ‘Most Accurate Forecaster’ by global economic survey house Consensus Economics.
The just released 2014 Forecaster Accuracy Awards for the Asia Pacific region recognise the achievements of forecasters that have most accurately predicted the performance of GDP growth and the CPI for their economies on a monthly basis between January 2013 and December 2014.
Among more than 20 Australian forecasters surveyed by Consensus Economics, including banks and other independent consultancies, Deloitte Access Economics’ GDP and CPI forecasts for calendar year 2014 were closest to the actual figures subsequently released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Deloitte Access Economics’ Chris Richardson said: “Forecasting is the bedrock of the macroeconomist’s trade, and Australia’s economists are among the world’s best when it comes to forecasting economic indicators and trends and using these to help inform policy development and conversations around any number of big picture social, political and business issues.
“Truly accurate forecasting is notoriously difficult to achieve. Our practice is lucky to have some of the best forecasters and models in the business, and this award is recognition for all of them.”
Deloitte Managing Partner Financial Advisory Services, Ian Thatcher said: “Economic forecasting and analysis is a real differentiator, especially when integrated with other strategic advisory capabilities that exist in our business.
“Bringing what was the then Access Economics team into Deloitte in 2011 was a bold move at the time, but it has paid off for both our firm and, more importantly, our clients.”
The award follows the release of a Federal Treasury report in December 2012 that looked at Treasury’s assessment of its forecasts for the national economy and Budget over the 22 years to 2012. The report benchmarked these assessments against Deloitte Access Economics for both the economy sand the Budget (and against the Reserve Bank for the economy). All three were found to have equally good track records on the economy, and both have equally good records when it comes to Budget forecasting.
Consensus Economics’ Forecast Accuracy Awards are assessed on the absolute differences between the forecasts they receive and the eventual actual data outturns. The forecaster with the lowest average error rate receives the award.
The winners of the 2014 Forecast Accuracy Awards program have been recognised for their high quality research, their commitment to regular forecasts and their ability to identify most accurately the trends and levels of key indicators over the past two years.
Established in London in 1989, Consensus Economics collects forecasts from over 700 economists around the world each month, and prepares monthly compilations of country economic forecasts and topical analyses covering the G-7 industrialised nations, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America.
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