Forecast accuracy award

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Deloitte Access Economics named Australia’s leading economic forecaster – again

2017 Consensus Econoics Forecast Accuracy Award Winner for Australia

1 May 2018: Deloitte Access Economics’ position as one of the country’s leading economic forecasters has been confirmed yet again, being named Australia’s ‘Most Accurate Forecaster’ by global survey house Consensus Economics.

The 2017 Forecast Accuracy Awards for the Asia Pacific region recognise the achievements of forecasters that have most accurately predicted the performance of GDP growth and the CPI for their economies on a monthly basis over the past two years.

Among 20 Australian forecasters regularly surveyed by Consensus Economics, including banks and other independent consultancies, Deloitte Access Economics’ GDP and CPI forecasts for calendar year 2017 were closest to the actual figures subsequently released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Notably, this is the second time Deloitte Access Economics has received the Forecast Accuracy Award, after being similarly recognised in 2015 (covering calendar year 2013 and 2014 forecasts). 

Forecast accuracy award

Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson said: “Forecasting is core to having the best possible understanding of economic trends and drivers and to help inform debates and policy development around the social, political and business issues shaping the future.

“Australia’s economists are among the world’s best when it comes to forecasting economic indicators, but truly accurate forecasting is notoriously difficult to achieve. Our practice has some of the best forecasters and models in the business, and this award is recognition for all of them.”

Deloitte Managing Partner Financial Advisory, David McCarthy said: “Economic forecasting and analysis is a real differentiator, especially when integrated with other strategic advisory capabilities available across our firm.”

Established in London in 1989, Consensus Economics collects forecasts from over 700 economists around the world each month, and prepares monthly compilations of country economic forecasts and topical analyses covering the G-7 industrialised nations, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America.

The winners of the 2017 Forecast Accuracy Awards program have been recognised for their high quality research, their commitment to regular forecasts and their ability to identify most accurately trends and levels of key indicators. To determine forecast accuracy, Consensus examined 2017 GDP and Consumer Price forecasts received in response to monthly surveys conducted between January 2016 and December 2017. Mean Absolute Error Analysis was then used to compare these forecasts to the reported outcomes.

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