TMT Predictions 2015
In 2015 Deloitte predicts innovation to swing from consumer to company; the contactless mobile payments tipping point; and print to be alive and well
Deloitte predicts the smartphone upgrade market to exceed one billion for the very first time in 2015, the in-store smartphone purchases worldwide to increase by more than 1,000 percent and three billion wireless Internet of Things devices to be shipped, with 95% of them paid for and used by enterprises.
21 January 2015: While the mobile wallet won’t replace the traditional wallet yet, according to Deloitte’s 14th annual Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions, 2015 will be a tipping point towards wider consumer adoption of in-store smartphone payments.
“Smartphones are already being used to check balances, transfer funds and transact online, although they have not yet reached ‘mobile wallet’ status globally,” said Stuart Johnston, Deloitte Australia TMT Industry leader. However we believe 2015 will be the inflection year.
“This is the first year that all mainstream mobile requirements will be addressed, including user friendly security, making smartphone payment options much easier. Since 2009 mobile payments have been poised to take off, waiting for the multiple prerequisites to satisfy financial institutions, merchants, consumers and device vendors,” Johnston said.
“In Australia, the UK, Canada, and Asia Pac - and in particular early adopters Japan – Tap and Pay is becoming universally accepted. We expect this to encourage our ‘always on’ Australian consumers to move easily to mobile payment, particularly given Australians take-up of mobile banking is ahead of the US, UK and Germany.
“Our report predicts that some five percent of the 600 million NFC-enabled smartphones in the world, (30 million), will be used to make an in-store payment at least once a month,” Johnston said.
Smartphone upgrades continue. Also, counter to previous industry predictions that the smartphone market will plateau, Deloitte predicts a further one billion upgrades globally in 2015, signalling that the market has not yet matured or stagnated. Over one billion of the 1.35 billion smartphones predicted to sell worldwide in 2015, will be upgrades – new phones for those who already have one. The upgrade cycle may be lengthening, but battery capacity and age, screen size, speed, storage, software and design will continue to drive growth for smartphone refreshes.
“As in our inaugural Deloitte Australian survey of 2,000 mobile consumers where Australia was rated as the sixth most concentrated smartphone market in the world, battery life is the most important factor Australians will look for in their next smartphone purchase, followed by price,” Johnston said.
Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television
Australia’s national Media Lead Partner Clare Harding says that the total time spent watching online short-form videos will represent less than three percent of all video seen in the year globally. Deloitte does not expect short-form online content to usurp long-form traditional television. It is a future, but not the future, of screen-based entertainment. “While there are some eye-watering statistics on the popularity of YouTube stars, with views in the billions, we believe that short form’s success should be respected but kept in context. We think it is unlikely ever to be the predominant video format, as measured by hours watched or revenues, both globally and in Australia” said Harding.
Print is not dead, at least for print books
One of the more surprising predictions of the 2015 Deloitte TMT report says Harding is that print books globally will continue to dominate the publishing industry, accounting for 80 percent of all book sales by dollars and units. In 2015 Deloitte predicts that sales from print books will be five times the sales of eBooks. In fact print will represent more than 80 per cent of book sales worldwide.
“eBooks have not substituted print books in the same way that sales of CDs, print newspapers and magazines have declined particularly for the younger cohort (aged 18-34), and specifically for young women. Apparently it is the ‘smell of books’, liking to collect them, and wanting ‘full bookshelves’ that is driving the appetite for printed books. It would seem that Millennials are as attached to print books as their elders and read at about the same rate. And they are willing to pay for them!” Harding said.
Millennials are also willing to pay for Pay TV, music, computer games, live sports, streaming videos, books and even print newspapers. “The ‘generation that won’t pay’ is spending on TMT and are being led by North American Millennials,” said Harding. “They will spend an average of US$750 per person in 2015 for content, both digital and traditional.”
Consumers don’t always lead the way: the pendulum swings back to enterprise innovation
TMT Risk Services Partner Dennis Moth pointed out that last year’s shifts from a decade-long trend of consumerisation of Information Technology (IT), with for example a modest consumer uptake of wearable technology like smart glasses, has set the trend for 2015.
“Although the noise is loudest around consumer use, we believe that in 2015 it is the enterprise that will drive adoption, drive spend and importantly reap value. We expect the pendulum of technology adoption to swing back to the enterprise with company led adoption of wearables, 3D printing, drones and the Internet of Things (IoT) meeting more needs and generating higher sales for business than consumers.”
The Internet of things really is things, not people
Deloitte predicts that in 2015, more than 60 percent of the one billion global wireless IoT devices will be bought, paid for and used by enterprises, with the IoT-specific hardware predicted to be worth $10 billion, and enterprise services enabled by the devices, about $70 billion. “Although the focus may well be on consumer take-up – think Bluetooth enabled roller-doors, white goods etc. - the real value will be in the savings made by industry and business, with smart factories, smart homes, eHealth and telematics,” Moth said.
Drones: high-profile and niche
Moth said: “In Australia for instance the takeup of drones will have multiple industrial, organisational and civil government applications. While we’ve initially seen drones used in the broadcasting of sport and events (e.g. Fox Copter and Telstra’s coverage of the Sydney NYE fireworks), in 2015 we’ll see further and multiple uses with Surf Life Saving Australia already using unmanned aerial drones to patrol some of Queensland beaches and the University of Wollongong awarding two of its PhD students an innovation award for their work on a lifesaving drone.”
Globally Deloitte predicts sales of non-military drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs), to be about 300,000 units, driving the installed base to over a million. Although consumers or prosumers will buy the majority, most of the real value will come from enterprise use.
3D printing is a revolution: Just not the revolution you think
In 2015 nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a dollar value of $1.6 billion, but it is unlikely that there will be a ‘factory in every home’. Deloitte estimates about 80 percent of the value of all 3D printers globally will be for companies instead of consumers, meaning the real revolution will be in the enterprise market.
“We anticipate that rapid prototyping and 3D objects that fit into existing manufacturing processes and techniques such as tooling or creating a mold, will represent 90 per cent of the objects made by the enterprise,” said Moth. “Three D printing will also boost the startup market given this ability to facilitate cost effective tailored prototypes.”
For more of the global TMT predictions see the Deloitte TMT Predictions Report available here.
About the TMT Predictions
The TMT Predictions are based on worldwide research supported by in-depth interviews and input from Deloitte member firm clients, Deloitte alumni, industry analysts, leading TMT executives, and thousands of Deloitte member firm TMT practitioners across its global network. The focus of Predictions varies from year-to-year, but one theme appears constant: the impact of TMT on our behaviour steadily deepens.
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