Perspectives

Covid-19: business modelling can support monitoring performance, scenario planning and strategic decision making

Scenario planning and modelling

Organisations can easily become paralysed by the health, economic and social uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is important for these organisations to have a rigorous scenario planning as a mechanism to determine appropriate strategic responses to possible future developments.

Scenario planning assists organisations to create logical, consistent stories of how the world might unfold. Scenario planning challenges assumptions, allows for the assessment of options, which ultimately enables better decision making.

5 Key challenges:

  • Ongoing scenario development, updating and modelling
    (continuous process)
  • Lack of confidence in future projections
  • Urgent need for decision and courses of action
  • Unclear decision-making framework and ambiguous criteria/triggers
  • Excessive manual iteration make scenario planning time consuming

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