TMT Predictions 2018
Artificial Intelligence gets very real through machine learning and augmented reality experience
The technology, media and entertainment, and technology ecosystem remains as fascinating as ever in 2018. How will machine learning affect the enterprise? Can traditional TV keep up? Are digital subscriptions set to rise? Will augmented reality become mainstream?
Deloitte invites you to read the latest Predictions report, designed to provide insight into transformation and growth opportunities over the next one to five years.
FY18 Predictions - 2017 Scorecard
Machine learning: things are getting intense
Deloitte predicts that in 2018 large and medium enterprises will intensify their use of machine learning (ML). The number of implementations and pilot projects using the technology will double compared to 2017, and will double again by 2020. Further, with enabling technologies such as ML APIs and specialised hardware available in the cloud, these advances will now be available to small as well as large companies.
Progress in five key areas should make it easier and faster to develop ML solutions. Three of these five advancements—automation, data reduction, and training acceleration—make ML easier, cheaper, or faster (or a combination of all three). The other two—model interpretability and local machine learning—enable applications in new areas, which should also expand the market.
The kids are alright: no tipping point in T.V. viewing trends for 18-24 year-olds
Deloitte predicts that traditional TV viewing by 18-24 year olds will decline by 5-15 percent per year in the US, Canada and the UK for both 2018 and 2019. But while annual declines are predicted to be in this wide range, it is also possible that declines will be at the lower end of the zone as the impact of the forces that distracted young people from traditional TV start to weaken.
Smartphones, computers, social media, YouTube, and streaming video are all nearing saturation in the three large English-speaking markets. The bottom line is that traditional TV business — broadcasters, distributors and advertisers — should assume that while 18-24 year old viewing minutes will experience ongoing annual declines, double digits will be the exception, not the rule.
Digital media: the subscription prescription
Deloitte predicts that by end-2018, 50 percent of adults in developed countries will have at least two online-only media subscriptions, and by end-2020, the average will have doubled to four. Online-only subscriptions have become more viable and easy to use, thanks to devices that facilitate access to online media subscription services, steadily rising broadband speeds, and ease of signup. Expansion of smartphone screens means that news articles can now be displayed very much like a newspaper column.
But as reach has grown, revenue per viewer, browser, impression, or click has steadily fallen. Generating sufficient revenue from online advertising alone has, for some publishers, felt like a Sisyphean task. In response, content creators have increasingly started to focus on growing their online digital subscription revenues, and on formulating ever more varied and appealing digital subscription packages.
Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality
Deloitte predicts that over a billion smartphone users will create augmented reality (AR) content at least once in 2018, with three hundred million being regular users (creating content monthly) and tens of millions making and sharing content weekly. While AR is not new to 2018, what differs is quality, especially with regard to photo-realism. There is greater precision when identifying surfaces and superior algorithms enable shadows for scenes lit by the sun or artificial light. The result is a more realistic illusion.
Looking ahead, AR should enable users to appear as if they are singing along with their favourite singer, interacting with a tiger, juggling balls with a star footballer, or being in the same space as any other person, animal or object that they may want to incorporate. Indeed, we will struggle to recall a time when AR was a mere novelty.
Find out more about these four forecasts, along with seven additional predictions, in the 17th edition of the Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions.