Economic insights

Snapshots on Canadian and international economic trends and events

A regularly updated snapshot by Deloitte Economics that provides commentary from Chief Economist, Craig Alexander on the latest developments shaping Canadian and international economies including, economic growth, business investment, trade, and market activity. Deloitte analysis gives you the knowledge to tackle the most challenging business issues of today.

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Covid-19 Webcasts

A collection of webcasts sharing Deloitte’s insights related to COVID-19

Canadian economy stages strong rebound in May with momentum continuing in June

31 Jul. 2020
Craig Alexander
The Canadian economy grew 4.5% in May, following two months of devastating declines. Preliminary estimates for June put Canadian real GDP growth at 5%, which would still mean a 40% annualized drop in Q2 2020.

Canadian inflation bounces back, US existing home sales rebound, geopolitical risks rise as US-China tensions build

22 Jul. 2020
Craig Alexander
Canadian inflation bounced back in June to a reading of 0.7% from the prior reading of -0.4% in May. US existing home sales jumped higher by 21% in June. Political risks to the outlook remain elevated as US-China tensions build.

Canada showing a ‘V’ shaped recovery so far, EU historic deal that reduces fiscal risks, and vaccine progress

21 Jul. 2020
Craig Alexander
Canadian retail sales rebounded in May with a gain of 18.7%. Stats Can preliminary estimates show a gain of 24% in June. This would return sales to very close to pre-COVID level. Business investment also rebounded in May. The EU reached a historic deal that reduces fiscal risks in the region.

E-Sight July 15: Bank of Canada provides forward guidance on rates, Canadian real estate rebounds strongly

15 Jul. 2020
Craig Alexander
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged and did not alter its asset purchase program. It did provide forward guidance on rates, suggesting that it will not raise rates until at least late 2022. Canadian real estate continues to surprise on the upside.

Federal fiscal snapshot shows the price tag of combating COVID-19

08 Jul. 2020
Craig Alexander
The federal government’s fiscal snapshot revealed a larger-than-expected deficit of $343.2 billion, or 15.9% of GDP. Debt-to-GDP has soared to 49%. But, more fiscal measures are likely in the fall to help the recovery.

Business outlook survey anticipates slow recovery, consumer expectations survey more about current conditions than prospects

06 Jul. 2020
Craig Alexander
The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
posted a large decline in the headline indicator, reflecting the recession. All
components were negative, but not as negative as the last recession.

US protectionism threat, US personal income falls but spending rises, Fitch downgrades Canada

30 Jun. 2020
Craig Alexander
The Trump administration is threating tariffs on Canadian aluminum. US personal income fell in May but personal spending increased, lowering personal saving. Fitch downgraded Canada’s credit rating.

Purchase Manager Indexes show a V shape, but does not mean the same for the recovery

25 Jun. 2020
Craig Alexander
US and European PMIs post a strong rebound in June that exceeded market expectations and helping equity markets to rally. Nevertheless, their level is still consistent with no economic growth. Moreover, there are questions about the resilience of the recovery.

Health risks are rising, Bank of Canada to use inflation targeting framework for recovery

23 Jun. 2020
Craig Alexander
The global health risks are rising, with the number of net new daily cases climbing towards 180,000. The increased number of cases in the US is worrying. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stresses the use of its inflation framework for addressing the recovery.

Some perspectives on the Canadian consumer

12 Jun. 2020
Craig Alexander
Canadian retail sales dropped in March. Auto sales fell in April. Households took on more debt in the first quarter, with the debt-to-income ratio rising to 177. Consumer spending is key to the economic recovery. Expenditure is expected to recover, but the pace of growth is likely to be slow.

Canadian inflation lower than expected, federal government commits to a fiscal snapshot on July 8

17 Jun. 2020
Craig Alexander
Canadian inflation fell by more than anticipated to -0.4% in May. This is not deflation, as it primarily reflects lower energy prices. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to respond to the lower inflation. The Federal government made a commitment to deliver a fiscal snapshot on July 8.

Financial markets get a wakeup call

11 Jun. 2020
Craig Alexander
Equity markets, commodity prices, and bond yields fell today. The catalyst appeared to be increased worries about health risks and a slower economic recovery.

Economic Insights archive