2023 federal budget analysis | Future of Canada Centre

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2023 federal budget analysis

Responding to today’s challenges and tomorrow’s opportunities

Foreword

Deloitte serves Canadian organizations in nearly every industry and sector. As trusted advisors, we understand the tough choices they face and we recognize the immense opportunities that await them. In the pages that follow, we reflect on how Deloitte’s sector experts, ecosystem partners, and clients think the government can achieve its 2023 federal budget priorities.

This budget was delivered at an important time. Canada is navigating global financial uncertainty, an ambitious transformation agenda, and a challenging geopolitical environment in addition to the persisting effects of the global pandemic.

And while there are consequential fiscal choices to be made to ensure Canadians’ continued prosperity and a sound social and economic future, there is also tremendous possibility on the horizon. Canada will play critical roles in powering a cleaner-energy future, facilitating food security, and manufacturing the products of tomorrow. The nation’s workforce, with some of the most diverse and educated workers in the world, will deliver on the next breakthroughs and innovations that will fuel the economy. With shared effort, we can continue to be the best place to live, work, and do business.

As a purpose-led organization, Deloitte is committed to advancing prosperity in Canada. It’s why we released Catalyst: A vision for a thriving Canada in 2030, and it’s why our Future of Canada Centre facilitates an exploration of new ideas, viewpoints, and insights with an aim of propelling the country into a new age of growth and competitiveness.

There’s a prosperous future ahead. Read on for insights from Deloitte experts about how we can achieve a thriving tomorrow.

- Anthony Viel

Introduction

In the context of a tightening economy, the 2023 budget strikes a balance between investing in key policy priorities while maintaining a measure of fiscal restraint.

Our analysis examines the government’s fiscal choices and its approach in five key areas: addressing labour market shortages, offering targeted inflation supports, providing quality health care, investing in Canada’s clean economy, and reworking Canada’s supply chain.

Overall, our assessment of the budget is mixed. We find that the government’s fiscal approach is reasonable but lacks a clear anchor. We find that increased immigration and participation in the labour market by underrepresented groups has potential to meet labour market needs, but only if the right supports are in place. We believe that targeted inflation supports for lower income Canadians make sense, but that there is more to do on other affordability issues, like housing supply. We think that substantial investment in health care is welcome but it would benefit from more attention to address the health care worker shortages. We see significant potential in the clean economy investments made to drive growth, especially in the context of a renewed emphasis on securing critical products from reliable sources. And we welcome the first steps taken in Budget 2023 to address supply chain resilience and await the full plan expected later this year.

The economic and fiscal context 

Budget 2023 was a balancing act that aimed to address the government’s priority areas—health and dental care, support for lower-income households, tax incentives for clean energy investments, and reconciliation with Indigenous populations—while trying to maintain a measure of fiscal responsibility in the face of slowing economic growth.

Deloitte’s most recent economic outlook anticipates a milder recession than previously forecasted. Higher interest rates are cooling consumer spending while businesses are limiting investment given the increased economic uncertainty. This has resulted in a softer pace of growth than many expected after last year’s Fall Economic Statement.

According to the government’s new economic projections, lower GDP growth will reduce revenues by an average of $5.7 billion a year over the next five years compared to its projections in the Fall Economic Statement. This deterioration has left the federal government in a deficit of $35.3 billion for 2023. New spending will total an average of $6 billion a year over the next five years in addition to $13 billion booked to the current fiscal year. However, this spending is net of planned reductions in spending and some small tax increases which are expected to recover $2.1 billion per year. Including the new announcements, the federal government is facing a larger deficit of $40.1 billion this year. This is expected to decline to a $14 billion deficit by fiscal 2027-28, meaning the government is no longer projected to balance the budget within the current projection period. 

Although the planned increases in the deficit remain sustainable, debt payments are expected to more than double to over $50 billion a year by 2027-28, up from $24.5 billion in 2021-22. Notably, while debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to decline in future years, the budget does not include a clear fiscal anchor.

Addressing labour market shortages

Long before the pandemic, the changing nature of work, digital transformation, an aging demographic, and globalization were all having an impact on the labour market in Canada. The Canadian economy has been recovering well, but businesses and governments continue to struggle with a shortage of skilled workers.

The federal government has centred its response to these challenges on measures to increase the country’s population, primarily through immigration. It has previously announced new immigration targets, hoping to admit 500,000 permanent residents annually by 2025. It has also focused on programs to increase the workforce participation of people who have been unable to do so meaningfully.

Supporting this increase in immigration requires investment in both systems and integration. The 2023 budget makes investments in digitizing the immigration system and easing the process of coming to Canada, which should help in the government’s efforts to address the backlog in processing applications. The budget does not, however, identify an increase in funding for settlement service provider organizations (SPO), which provide critical support to ensure newcomers maximize their economic potential. More broadly, the federal government does not yet show how it will align its immigration targets with provincial and municipal health, housing, and social policies to support a growing population to ensure it thrives.

Increases to immigration and meaningful participation of underrepresented groups, such as Indigenous peoples and women, will help to fill the current vacancies plaguing Canadians businesses and governments and, by extension, help the country prosper.

New Canadians will benefit from some supports proposed in the budget, like the one-time top-up to the Labour Market Transfer Agreements with provinces and territories, which fund skills training, jobs searches, and upgrading. They will also benefit from the existing support provided by all levels of government and SPOs. Still, the lack of incremental funding linked to the increased targets will challenge organizations and newcomers alike. Recognizing one of Canada’s fastest-growing populations, the budget stresses the importance of meaningful Indigenous inclusion in the workforce and Indigenous self-determination to advance their full participation in the economy. The budget proposes $5 million in 2023-24 for the co-development of an economic reconciliation framework with Indigenous partners to increase economic opportunities for Indigenous peoples.Canada’s commitment to support Indigenous-led economic development is timely, given its priority to address current and future labour market needs and to support Indigenous community prosperity.

Such investments in promoting labour market participation by specific segments have proven effective. For example, investments in childcare intended to encourage more women into the workforce have begun to show their economic value. As the minister of finance noted that in February 2023, “the labour force participation rate for Canadian women in their prime working years hit a record high of 85.7%.”

Increases to immigration and meaningful participation of underrepresented groups, such as Indigenous peoples and women, will help to fill the current vacancies plaguing Canadians businesses and governments and, by extension, help the country prosper.

Targeted inflation supports

Inflation has disproportionately affected lower- and middle-income Canadians, as prices have increased faster than incomes. Many are finding it more difficult to afford basic goods and services. This budget proposed several measures to help people manage costs.

The government has introduced an increased GST rebate that aims to benefit approximately 11 million low-income households at a cost of $2.5 billion. While the rebate is positioned as relief from rising grocery pircesthe one-time payment of between $225 and $467 is not contingent on grocery expenditure.

The government also proposed a Canada Dental Care Plan, which expands access to free or subsidized oral health care to more households under pre determined income thresholds. The scale-up of this program fulfills a key condition of the NDP’s supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals. Attention to delivering this program in a way that is easily accessible by vulnerable populations will be a key success factor.

Housing costs, driven up by a comparative lack of housing supply, is another key contributor to the affordability challenge in Canada. Last year’s federal budget introduced a Housing Accelerator Fund, which is set to launch in the coming months and is expected to spur 100,000 new units of housing by 2027. Yet, against a backdrop of stagnant housing starts, this represents a small slice of the additional homes needed to mitigate the housing affordability crisis. And the 2023 budget included only one relatively minor measure to further increase housing supply, in the form of an adjustment to its affordable housing program to allow funds earmarked for repairs to be used in new construction.

To further increase housing supply, the federal government could consider incentives to increase the construction of purpose-built rental units and increased investment in affordable housing.

Cost of living adjustment

The cost of groceries increased by 9.8% in 2022 and grew by another 5.2% in February 20231

A recent poll showed that 43% of Canadians consider help with the soaring cost of everyday needs due to inflation as the top priority for the budget2

Quality care for future generations

A healthy population is a necessary pillar for prosperous communities and a strong workforce. For Canada, it also serves as a competitive global business advantage that could be put at risk if the health care system declines.

This year’s budget includes the Government of Canada’s previously announced plan to provide $195.8 billion over 10 years to provinces and territories to strengthen public health care.

At present, the health care worker shortage across the country is the most acute issue in each of the provincial and territorial health care systems. While funding is important, the timely allocation of dollars to address immediate and systemic needs is important for long-term success. Provinces and territories have jurisdiction over education and training for health care workers, scope of practice regulations, and funding for things like wages, but there is a national interest in addressing HHR shortages.

Beyond the efforts to address the general worker shortage by boosting immigration, as mentioned earlier, the federal government can help address the shortfall in this sector by facilitating the adoption of national licensure for health care professionals. This would enable health care providers to work in more than one province, thereby improving their mobility and flexibility without an expensive and lengthy application process. While regulation and licensing is a provincial and territorial responsibility, in exchange for the new funding earmarked in the 2023 budget, the federal government is asking provinces and territories to “advance multi-jurisdictional credential recognition.” The budget does not, however, detail how it might further incentivize pan-Canadian licensure. 

The primary care system also needs a substantial boost to improve service across the country. One idea that continues to gain traction is to connect every Canadian to a primary-care team within 30 minutes of their home or workplace3. While the mechanics of enabling this would largely happen at the provincial level, the federal government can play a role. The new funding transfers also stipulate that the provinces and territories develop action plans to measure and report progress on improved access to family health services. Such data, which should include how many Canadians have regular access to primary care and how many primary care practitioners have joined the system, will be critical to determining if the funding is having the desired impact.

Investing in the clean economy

The federal government identifies greening the economy as Canada’s greatest economic growth opportunity. To capitalize on it, Budget 2023 makes $20.9 billion in new investments over the next five years that aim to respond to the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), accelerate decarbonization, drive economic growth and competitiveness, and strengthen Canada’s transition to clean energy.

Central to the government’s strategy is a suite of new and enhanced investment tax credits to attract critical investments that enable Canada to lean on its competitive advantages and lead in the global clean economy. The credits incentivize investments in clean technology manufacturing and adoption, clean hydrogen, and carbon capture utilization and storage. While these measures will drive investments and growth, production tax credits—a low-risk measure introduced by the US government’s IRA to reward preferred outcomes—could complement investment tax credits and provide greater certainty that Canada’s long-term objectives will be met.

Central to the government’s strategy is a suite of new and enhanced investment tax credits to attract critical investments that enable Canada to lean on its competitive advantages and lead in the global clean economy.

Powering clean economic growth requires a clean, modernized electricity grid. Budget 2023 takes significant steps to achieve this with a 15% Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit and a $20 billion commitment, via the Canada Infrastructure Bank, to invest in clean power projects across the country. The Deloitte report Building Canada’s future: Maximizing clean-energy infrastructure to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 notes that effectively modernizing the power grid requires coordination between provinces and territories, municipalities, Indigenous authorities, utilities, and regulators. The pending launch of the Pan-Canadian Grid Council could be a vital platform for identifying and eliminating barriers to grid transformation, as long as the government ensures all these key players are at the table.

Critical minerals will also play a defining role in Canada’s clean economy. Budget 2023 introduces a 30% Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit and re-allocates $1.5 billion of the Strategic Innovation Fund toward projects that include critical minerals. Combined with the $3.8 billion already invested in the Critical Minerals Strategy, these measures will help accelerate growth and innovation in the critical mineral value chain while reducing dependency on other countries. The recently announced battery “gigafactory” in Ontario signals the government’s intention to leverage this opportunity and become a global leader in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing.

The Government of Canada also intends to attach labour requirements to several of its investment tax credits in order for businesses to receive the full credit rate. The requirements are designed to help address challenges in attracting and retaining talent in these industries, with conditions including an obligation to pay fair wages and create apprenticeships. To meet the workforce needs of Canada’s clean economy, it will become increasingly important to review and enhance training programs and to support efforts to fill the jobs created by major project developments.

The importance of free, prior, and informed consent, and collaboration and participation by Indigenous peoples in clean energy projects cannot be overstated. The federal government proposed several funding streams in Budget 2023 for progress on reconciliation and the Crown’s duty to consult Indigenous peoples. Notably, the budget commits $8.7 million to support deeper engagement with Indigenous partners and rights-holders and toward the National Benefits-Sharing Framework.

The Canada Infrastructure Bank will also provide loans to Indigenous communities to purchase equity stakes in infrastructure projects. As Canada expands clean energy and critical mineral projects, the benefit-sharing opportunities that arise provide crucial economic participation and access to capital for Indigenous communities in these major projects.

To continue to advance reconciliation, the government should look to incentivize partnerships with Indigenous-led workforce training organizations to provide more opportunities for Indigenous peoples to participate in the clean economy’s growing labour market demands.

To build the global clean economy, more than US$100 trillion in private capital is projected to be spent between now and 2050.4

Many careers in the clean technology manufacturing sector do not require a university degree, and even at this early stage of development, the average worker compensation in this sector in 2021 was $90,252—well above Canada’s economy-wide average of $69,311.5

“Friend-shored” and resilient supply chains

The climate crisis has created a need to decarbonize the economy. This need, in turn, has created a major economic opportunity to build a clean economy and net-zero carbon industries. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising tensions with China, have caused the world’s democracies to re-evaluate the wisdom of full global economic interdependence; they’re now seeking to “friend-shore” critical supply chains. At the same time, the pandemic and extreme weather events—like massive flooding and wildfires—have highlighted the importance of international and domestic supply chain resilience.

Each of these dynamics generates both animperative and an opportunity for the Canadian economy.As stated in the previous section, Budget 2023 makes major investments in clean electricity and clean technology. In addition to supporting the decarbonization of the economy, these investments represent a significant effort to maintain and enhance Canada’s global competitiveness in clean tech sectors, and to position Canada as a reliable global supplier of critical products including clean energy, critical minerals, and electric vehicles.

Beyond Budget 2023, Canada should examine additional areas of opportunity to enhance growth and productivity in the context of decoupling and friend-shoring. These areas could include intellectual property protection and promotion, and monitoring the progress of the Canada Innovation Corporation. They could also include other previously announced innovation focuses, deepening efforts to support business investment beyond the energy and clean tech sectors, and furthering efforts to position Canada as a global leader on food supply.

Considering the strains on supply chains created by the pandemic and climate-related weather events, the federal government established a National Supply Chain Task Force. The task force reported its findings in October 2022, in response to which the government will release a strategy in the coming months. Budget 2023 announced a series of measures labelled a “down payment” on that strategy, which include investments to create the Transportation Supply Chain Office to respond to disruptions, better co-ordinate action to promote the resilience of Canada’s supply chains, and improve supply chain data. Tests for the broader supply chain strategy will include its effectiveness in easing port congestion, addressing labour shortage and retention challenges, and progress in harmonizing regulations across provinces and with the United States.

Footnotes

1. Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index: Annual Review, 2022, January 17, 2023.

2. Gregory Jack, Canadians Outline Their 2023 Federal Budget Priorities, Ispos, March 27, 2023.

3. Public Policy Forum, Taking Back Health Care: How to Accelerate People-Centred Reform Now, January 2023.

4. Department of Finance Canada, Budget 2023: A Made-in-Canada Plan, p.94, March 28, 2023. 

5. Department of Finance Canada, Budget 2023: A Made-in-Canada Plan, p.84, March 28, 2023.

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