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Oil and gas price forecast

Sustainable ecosystems: Collaborating to reach Canada's carbon goals

As global efforts to decarbonize broaden and accelerate, the oil and gas industry is taking substantial steps to do its part. Industry players recognize that while they have a critical role in building a carbon-neutral future, they also need a solution that ensures they can continue to be key energy providers to domestic and global economies.

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NOTE: Our forecast is not for dissemination in the United States or for distribution to United States' wire services. By downloading these materials, you agree to be bound by our legal disclaimer.

Crude oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending eight years into the future. Other US crude prices, such as Gulf Coast ASCI, Louisiana Light, and Alaskan North Slope are based on historical differentials to WTI.

Light oil prices at Edmonton are forecast using the most recent pipeline tariffs and exchange rates. Consideration is also given to the current differential futures, as traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This price is used as the basis to arrive at the remaining domestic crude reference points, using price offsets based on long-term historical data.

Brent crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the International Commodities Exchange (ICE), which extends seven years into the future. Other International crude oil prices—such as the OPEC Basket, Venezuelan, Nigerian, Mexican, Russian, and Indonesian crudes—are based on historical differentials to Brent crude oil.

Natural gas

Henry Hub natural gas prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending twelve years into the future. Other US natural gas prices, such as Permian Waha and Louisiana East Texas, are based on historical differentials to Henry Hub.

The Canadian AECO-C price is forecast using the historical differential to Henry Hub. Consideration is also given to AECO-C futures as traded on the Natural Gas Exchange (NGX).

UK National Balancing Point (NBP) natural gas pricing has been forecast separately from Henry Hub based on futures data from ICE.

Natural gas liquids (NGLs)

Canadian NGL prices are based on delivery to Edmonton. Adjustments for transportation back to specific plant sales points are required to arrive at the property product price.

Condensate, propane, and butane are tied directly to light oil prices at Edmonton and are forecast based on historical trends. Similarly, ethane is tied to AECO-C gas prices.

Sulphur

North American sulphur prices are obtained from select sulphur producers that submit statements to the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). Given the volatility of the sulphur market, prices are based on recent historical data and are forecast as a constant price in real dollars.

Price forecast archives

Download our price and market demand forecasts from years past.

June 2021

Market rally, resulting in resilient commodity prices

March 2021

Oil prices surged in the first quarter of 2021 as oil demand began to rebound, reflecting the optimism of continuous rollouts of the COVID-19 vaccine and improved global economic activity.

December 2021

International crude oil prices have been relatively level over the last few months, even as COVID-19 cases were surging in many nations.

View all archives

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Contact

Andrew Botterill

National Leader, Oil, Gas & Chemicals

Andrew Botterill is a Partner in Deloitte’s Resource Evaluation & Advisory (REA) service line with extensive experience in Mergers and Acquisitions Advisory. Andrew is a leader of the REA technical team in many facets of reservoir engineering, enhanced oil recovery, reservoir simulations and the evaluation of oil and gas assets.

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