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Energy, oil, and gas price forecast

Extremely low natural gas prices won’t stay low for long

Our latest price forecast remains optimistic that current low natural gas prices are not here to stay with increasing near term demand for natural gas from heating, power, and liquid natural gas exports.

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About our forecast

The sector is transforming. So is our price forecast.

Deloitte’s energy, oil, and gas price forecast takes many factors into account, including historical trends, future market changes, current supply and demand, and global geopolitical changes. We collect this information from many sources, such as industry publications, exchange markets, and government agencies.

Our diverse, well-rounded data and information keep us in tune with the industry. With the everchanging nature of the landscape, we release our price forecasts every quarter to keep you up to date.

Crude oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending eight years into the future. Other US crude prices, such as Gulf Coast ASCI, Louisiana Light, and Alaskan North Slope are based on historical differentials to WTI.

Light oil prices at Edmonton are forecast using the most recent pipeline tariffs and exchange rates. Consideration is also given to the current differential futures, as traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This price is used as the basis to arrive at the remaining domestic crude reference points, using price offsets based on long-term historical data.

Brent crude oil prices are forecast using futures data from the International Commodities Exchange (ICE), which extends seven years into the future. Other International crude oil prices—such as the OPEC Basket, Venezuelan, Nigerian, Mexican, Russian, and Indonesian crudes—are based on historical differentials to Brent crude oil.

Natural gas

Henry Hub natural gas prices are forecast using futures data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), extending twelve years into the future. Other US natural gas prices, such as Permian Waha and Louisiana East Texas, are based on historical differentials to Henry Hub.

The Canadian AECO-C price is forecast using the historical differential to Henry Hub. Consideration is also given to AECO-C futures as traded on the Natural Gas Exchange (NGX).

UK National Balancing Point (NBP) natural gas pricing has been forecast separately from Henry Hub based on futures data from ICE.

Natural gas liquids (NGLs)

Canadian NGL prices are based on delivery to Edmonton. Adjustments for transportation back to specific plant sales points are required to arrive at the property product price.

Condensate, propane, and butane are tied directly to light oil prices at Edmonton and are forecast based on historical trends. Similarly, ethane is tied to AECO-C gas prices.

Sulphur

North American sulphur prices are obtained from select sulphur producers that submit statements to the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). Given the volatility of the sulphur market, prices are based on recent historical data and are forecast as a constant price in real dollars.

Price forecast archives

Download our price and market demand forecasts from years past.

June 2024

Making confident decisions in a complex energy landscape

March 2024

Drought conditions pose a challenge for oil and gas development in 2024

December 2023

New avenues opening for chemical and oil and gas industries

View all archives

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Contact

Andrew Botterill

National Leader, Energy & Chemicals

A partner in our Resource Evaluation & Advisory (REA) practice, Andrew leads the REA technical team, advising clients in many facets of reservoir engineering, enhanced oil recovery, reservoir simulations, and the evaluation of energy and chemicals assets.

Lesley Mitchell

Partner| Resource Evaluation and Advisory

Lesley is a professional engineer who has over 15 years of experience specializing in oil and gas reserve estimation, economic evaluations, and investment decision analysis.

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