Deloitte TMT Predictions

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Deloitte TMT Predictions: Machine Learning and Digital Subscriptions on the Rise

The willingness to pay for digital content will grow - by 2020, there will be over 680 million digital subscriptions. Enterprise machine learning will be more frequent, powered by new chips and better software tools. By 2023, smartphone sales will exceed 1.85 billion per year (five million units sold per day). Smartphone owners will interact with their phones on average 65 times per day.

Prague, 12 December 2017 – In the next 5 years the world can expect an increase in enterprise machine learning, a global appetite for digital subscriptions among consumers and ongoing smartphone dominance. These are the results of Deloitte’s study Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions. Deloitte has been forecasting the global trends in TMT for 17 years.

Customers are willing to pay for live content and digital media

Digital’s rise has augmented the public’s appetite for media. The online world is dominated by live streaming. Deloitte estimates that live broadcast and events will generate over USD 545 billion in direct revenues in 2018.

China will most likely remain the largest market for live streaming at USD 4.4 billion in 2018, which is an 86 percent increase from 2016.

In line with the increasing willingness from consumers to pay for digital content, we predict that by the end of 2018, 50 percent of adults in developed countries will have at least two online-only media subscriptions, and by the end of 2020, the average will have doubled to four (680 million digital subscriptions).

Machine learning on the rise

The study highlights several key areas that will unlock intensive use of machine learning in the enterprise by making it easier, cheaper and faster.

“As for the more extensive use of machine learning, new chips (such as IBM Power9, Intel NNP, NVIDIA or Apple A11 Bionic) will play the major role as they will power applications with the required operations (GPU – vector calculations) and the performance needed to implement machine learning applications. The way to machine learning will thus be substantially easier for end users and businesses”, says Štěpán Húsek, Partner and Technology Lead at Deloitte.

The future of the smartphones

Smartphone adoption continues to grow. According to Deloitte’s predictions, more than 90 percent of adults in developed countries are expected to have a smartphone by the end of 2023, with ownership among 55-75 year-olds reaching 85 percent. By 2023, five million smartphones will be sold per day.

“In 2023, we will use our phones 65 times a day on average, which is 20% more than in 2018”, says Petr Viktora, Partner at Deloitte Digital, and continues: “However, 45% of adult smartphone users and 65% of users between 18 and 24 years will deliberately strive to reduce their interaction with smartphones”.

Other topics of Deloitte TMT Predictions for 2018 include:
  • Augmented reality on the cusp of reality – Over a billion smartphone users will likely create augmented reality (AR) content at least once in 2018, with at least 300 million doing so monthly, and tens of millions weekly, according to Deloitte Global.
  • Mobile only wireless home internet – For 2018, Deloitte Global forecasts that one tenth of European countries will get all of their internet data access via cellular mobile networks. There will be significant variations by country, however. In North American homes, 20 percent of all homes will be mobile.
  • An increase in #adlergic – While three quarters of North Americans engage in at least one form of regular adblocking, only about 10 percent of this population engages in blocking ads in four or more ways – the “adlergic” population. Consumers who are young, highly educated, employed, and have higher incomes are more likely to be heavy adblockers.
  • TV viewing by 18-24 year olds: stable declines, but no tipping point – Deloitte Global predicts that traditional TV viewing by 18-24 year-olds will decline by 5-15 percent per year in the US, Canada, and the UK in 2018 and 2019. This rate of decline is a similar rate to the prior seven years and is not getting worse. Many forces that distracted young people away from traditional TV, such as smartphones, social media, and video piracy, are reaching saturation.
  • In flight connectivity – One billion passenger journeys, or one quarter of all passengers, are expected to be on planes fitted with in-flight connectivity (IFC) in 2018, according to Deloitte Global. This is an estimated 20 percent increase from projected 2017 totals, generating IFC revenue close to USD 1 billion for 2018.
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