Powering the Future: Zero Emission Trucks

Current Situation:

Heavy road transport, particularly trucks over 15 tons, significantly contributes to global CO2 emissions, accounting for 27% of road transport emissions and 6% of total EU greenhouse gas emissions. The urgency to address these emissions hasintensified following the Paris Climate Agreement's push to limit globaltemperature rise. This global mandate is driving a major shift towards Zero Emission Trucks (ZETs), which are essential to achieving more sustainable
transportation solutions. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are now under increased pressure to innovate and meet stringent emission targets, reflecting the broader regulatory and market trends prioritizing environmental
responsibility.

Potential Technologies:

To decarbonize road freight transport, the focus is on zero emission vehicles, with battery electric trucks (BETs) and hydrogen fuel cell trucks (FCVs) leading the way. Although synthetic fuels are being explored, their inefficiencies and high green energy demands make them less viable compared to zero emission technologies. BETs, with their advanced lithium-ion batteries, are ideal for short- to medium-haul routes due to their evolving charging infrastructure and decreasing operational costs. FCVs, on the other hand, offer longer ranges and faster refueling, making them suitable for long-haul applications. Both technologies are crucial for reducing carbon emissions and advancing sustainable road transportation.

ZEV Roll-Out Barriers

Customer reluctance towards zero emission trucks (ZETs) is driven by several factors. High upfront costs, limited and unevenly distributed charging infrastructure, and range anxiety create concerns about operational reliability. Additionally, the evolving nature of these technologies raises doubts about their performance and long-term reliability. The risk of reduced residual value further discourages investment.

Charging/Refueling Infrastructure

Developing a robust network of charging and refueling stations is crucial for ZET adoption. This involves significant investment and coordination among various stakeholders, including government bodies and private companies. The next chapter will delve into the current infrastructure status and future requirements.

Range Anxiety

Advancements in battery technology are addressing range anxiety. Trucks like the Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 with more than 500 km range and the Tesla Semi offering even longer ranges, making zero emission trucks increasingly viable for both short- and long-haul applications.

Early Adoption & Service Availability

Despite concerns, early adoption of zero emission trucks is practical due to their simpler drivetrains with lower maintenance needs and improving repairability of batteries. OEMs are supporting this transition through training and warranties, enhancing reliability.

Residual Value

Residual value risks for zero emission trucks are expected to decrease as the technology matures. Improved reliability and infrastructure will make these trucks a more attractive investment.

High Purchase Prices & TCO

While zero emission trucks have high upfront costs, their total cost of ownership is decreasing. Advances in battery technology and lower energy costs will make them more cost effective compared to diesel trucks over time.

ZEV Infrastructure Requirements

Refueling and Recharging Use Cases

Truck recharging needs vary based on vehicle usage, generally falling into three categories: depot charging, target location charging, and public charging. Public charging, especially for long-haul trucks, is crucial, because it is not controllable by single truck OEMs,  and challenging due to infrastructure access issues. This study focuses on public charging, including hydrogen refueling, due to its minimal impact on existing truck refueling behaviors.

ZEV Public Infrastructure Requirements

To gauge infrastructure needs, consider the average range and refueling times of zero emission trucks (ZETs). Battery electric trucks (BETs) currently offer ranges of 500–700 km, while hydrogen fuel cell trucks (H2) can reach up to 1,000 km. Consequently, public hydrogen stations will be less dense compared to BET charging stations. With current limitations, the focus is on developing adequate charging infrastructure for BETs. The Megawatt Charging System (MCS), with up to 3.75 MW capacity, is emerging as a solution to meet the high energy demands of long-haul trucks. Initial MCS installations will offer up to 1 MW.

Network Demand

The demand for charging infrastructure for zero emission trucks (ZETs) is critical and varies based on different projections. The European Union's framework projects that by 2030, approximately 2,800 charge parks will be necessary across Europe to support the growing fleet of battery electric trucks (BETs). This projection considers the need for comprehensive coverage along major routes to ensure operational reliability.

In contrast, the Fraunhofer Institute estimates that around 1,000 charge parks, each equipped with an average of 10 Megawatt Charging System (MCS) points, would be sufficient to cater to 91% of BET traffic in Europe, assuming that 15% of the truck fleet will be electric by 2030. This scenario suggests a more concentrated network with fewer but larger and more capable charging stations.

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) projects an even larger need, estimating that around 40,000 to 50,000 charge points will be required by 2030. Assuming each charge park contains 10 to 12 charge points, this results in the need for approximately 4,000 charge parks.

These differing estimates highlight the uncertainty and variability in infrastructure planning, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts to develop a robust and scalable charging network that can accommodate the future demands of ZETs while ensuring broad geographic coverage and operational efficiency.

Investment Demand

Building MCS charge parks requires substantial investment. Current estimates put costs at EUR 300,000 per charge point, translating to costs ranging from EUR 3-12 billion depending on the number of charge points . Investments cover not only charge parks but also electricity production and distribution networks.

Key Development Success Factors

To ensure the successful rollout of zero emission truck (ZET) infrastructure, several crucial tasks must be addressed beyond merely installing charging poles. Here are the key considerations:

1. Pricing: The cost of energy is a pivotal factor. With current battery electric truck (BET) prices averaging from around 30 cents per kWh, the breakeven point compared to diesel trucks occurs after approximately six years. However, public fast charging for passenger cars is trending towards 60–80 cents per kWh, which could result in higher total cost of ownership (TCO) for BETs and impact their competitiveness. Therefore, achieving competitive and sustainable pricing is essential for broader adoption.
2. Ecosystem Integration: Truck drivers will need to charge at various locations, including private depots and public stations. A seamless integration of multiple charging locations, energy contracts, and payment methods is necessary to facilitate easy access and streamline the charging process. This integration must rival the advanced systems currently provided by fuel card providers and gas station networks.
3. Network Density: For long-haul operations, a high density of charging infrastructure is crucial to prevent downtime due to waiting for available charge points or finding insufficient charging opportunities. Effective planning is required to distribute charging points evenly, avoiding concentration in popular locations and ensuring coverage in less frequented areas.
4. Practical Usability: The infrastructure must accommodate the daily operational needs of truck drivers within legal constraints. This includes enabling trucks to be moved during mandatory breaks to free up charging spots and ensuring that both fast and overnight charging options are available to meet different use cases.

Key Players and Roles

The development and rolloutof public megawatt charging infrastructure for zero emission trucks (ZETs) involve a diverse set of stakeholders, each with unique interests and capabilities. Understanding these roles is crucial for creating an effective and comprehensive charging network.

Stakeholder Groups

1. Private Mobility Providers (OEMs): These organizations, which include vehicle manufacturers, are primarily focused on technological standards, vehicle compatibility, and market adoption strategies. They can offer valuable insights and support in shaping the infrastructure but are less likely to lead the physical development of charging stations. Their role is more about ensuring that vehicles integrate smoothly with the infrastructure.
2. Private Energy Providers (PowerCos or Petroleum Companies): These entities are well-positioned to manage the operational aspects of megawatt charging stations. They can take the lead in deploying advanced technologies, optimizing energy management, and handling commercialization and revenue. However, they must address pricing strategies to ensure that charging costs remain competitive and encourage adoption.
3. Public Energy Providers: Key players in integrating renewable energy solutions and ensuring that charging stations are efficiently connected to the power grid. They can leverage public funding and focus on aligning infrastructure development with broader sustainability goals.
4. Public Mobility Providers: These organizations, often responsible for managing transportation infrastructure, are ideally suited to lead the deployment of charging infrastructure along highways and major routes. They possess the expertise and land access needed to build a dense and well-distributed network, focusing on infrastructure provisioning rather than monetization.

Summary

Each stakeholder group plays a distinct role in the infrastructure ecosystem. OEMs contribute to technological and strategic aspects, private energy providers manage operational and financial elements, public energy providers handle grid integration and sustainability, and public mobility providers oversee the physical rollout and network density. Effective collaboration among these players is essential to overcoming challenges and advancing the adoption of zero emission trucks.

Outlook

Successfully scaling up charging infrastructure for zero emission trucks (ZETs) demands central coordination and strong alignment among stakeholders. With currently only one operational charging point and numerous charging parks in the planning stage, it's essential that legislation fosters a unified development approach across nations or ideally, the entire continent.

Centralized public control is critical to integrating grid infrastructure and ensuring that public charging stations on European highways are effectively provisioned. This also supports legal frameworks that enable truck drivers to reposition their vehicles during mandated breaks for charging, thereby improving operational flexibility.

Achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in the transport sector requires a smooth transition to ZETs, avoiding additional obstacles such as high electricity costs or charging infrastructure that doesn't align with driver and fleet operator needs.

Governments should prioritize unified legislation and international investment subsidies to support this transition. Clear, binding regulations are necessary for establishing a robust megawatt charging network, which is crucial for widespread ZET adoption. Coordination among OEMs, power companies, and governments is essential to avoid fragmented approaches and ensure the infrastructure effectively supports zero emission vehicles.

Download the study here and discover how industry leaders are overcoming infrastructure challenges to make zero emission trucks a reality.