The Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker Autumn 2020

Key findings

• The 140 deals in H1 2020 is a significant decrease from the 197 deals in H1 2019. While deal activity in the UK and France declined by 43.7% and 55.3% respectively, the rest of Europe saw a decrease of 56.2%. The biggest decline occurred in April and May 2020 which saw deal volumes collapse 58% from 115 deals in 2019 to 48 deals in 2020.
• Looking at the purpose of the Direct Lending deals, dividend recaps volumes were down 73% to three Direct Lending deals in H1 2020 compared to 11 deals in H1 2019. Refinancing also witnessed a material decrease of 62% from 47 deals in H1 2019 to 18 deals in H1 2020. In contrast, Bolt on M&A and LBOs were less impacted, declining by 37% and 5% respectively.
• Companies in the Healthcare, Financial Services and Software sectors continue to attract strong demand. It appears headline commercial terms are not far off from pre-COVID times, with businesses in these sectors still commanding 5.5x – 6.0x leverage at pricing of 600-650 bps, driven by a lack of supply and pressure for funds to deploy in the least impacted industries.
• The pandemic has severely impacted fundraising this year, where global Direct Lending fundraising is to experience the slowest year since 2015 in terms of capital raised, with fundraising totalling just $18.2bn across 17 vehicles globally, down from $52.6bn raised in the first half of last year.
• Despite the likely impact on some direct lender managers, the Direct Lending asset class overall is likely to retain favour amongst investors as it offers attractive risk adjusted premiums compared to other asset classes in a likely continued low-yielding environment for the next decade.
• At present, banks are largely pre-occupied with their existing books and reduced risk appetite for levered deals will make it more difficult for them to protect their already dwindling market share.

Changes in format of the Deal Tracker

The Deloitte Debt & Capital Advisory team has taken the decision that going forward the full Deal Tracker publication will be released on a twice-yearly basis with the first edition covering H1 being released in Q3 and the second edition covering H2 being released in Q1 of the following year. However, the online interactive fragment on this webpage will be updated on a quarterly basis so you will still have information on a quarterly basis.

Background

Our Debt Advisory team has been in active dialogue with the leading European Alternative Lenders to set up a quarterly database, which monitors the primary European deal activity involving these lenders. 67 alternative debt funds currently participate in the Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker and the results are released to interested parties on a quarterly basis in a public version of the tracker.

Debt & Capital Advisory

The Debt and Capital Advisory team is an integral part of Deloitte's Financial Advisory practice, providing independent advice and world class execution across the full spectrum of debt markets through the firm's global network.

Previous editions

Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Q3 2019
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Q1 2019
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Q4 2018
Deloitte Alternative Lender Deal Tracker - Q1 2018