Global Economic Outlook

Q1 2016

Der Global Economic Outlook von Deloitte bietet zu jeden Quartal Einblicke über wirtschaftliche Trends und Ereignisse auf der ganzen Welt.

Im neuen Jahr sind Faktoren, die einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf die Weltwirtschaft haben werden: Beschlüsse, der US-Notenbank, der Europäische Zentralbank, der Bank von Japan. der Volksbank von China sowie der Erdöl Behörden Saudi-Arabien. Politische Entscheidungen durch diese und andere Regierungen, auch die der großen Schwellenländer, werden den Weg der Wechselkurse, Rohstoffpreise, die Inflation und letztlich auch das Wirtschaftswachstum beeinflussen.

Was auf die Wirtschaft zukommt? Erfahren Sie mehr und laden Sie sich den nebenstehenden Global Economic Outlook herunter.

Global Economic Outlook Q1 2016

Fokus des GEOs

Eurozone: Strengthening the recovery.
Despite weakness in emerging markets and geopolitical tensions, the Eurozone economy has, on the whole, benefited from lower energy prices, the European Central Bank’s strong monetary policy, a declining euro, and a neutral fiscal policy. The result is that Europe’s economy is on track for favorable growth in 2016. However, risks remain and business investment is weak. The article discusses various policy levers that might boost investment in the future.

United States: Outlook is solid—even the Fed thinks so
The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade can be viewed as a vote of confidence in the US economy. While exports may be under pressure (mainly due to the strength of the US dollar), other factors—such as historically low oil prices, strong job growth, and pent-up demand for housing—are favorable for growth.

China: No reversal of slowdown yet 
Though China’s slowdown has been getting worse, the central bank has plenty of room to act in order to stimulate growth, given the level of policy interest rates. However, it may be reluctant to promote even more capital flows out of China, and may prefer to engage in more fiscal stimulus. In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund has granted China’s currency reserve status, setting the stage for China’s integration into the world’s financial system. The article discusses the implications of this action on the currency.

India: Go beyond borders to grow beyond borders
India’s growth story looks optimistic; GDP is expected to grow over 7.3 percent this fiscal year and inflation to remain within the estimated limit. However, India will find it difficult to sustain growth in the long run if rising demand is not supported by increasing supply and employment. This article also discusses India’s integration with the world through the twin channels of trade and capital flows.

Japan: Uneasy is the economic tide
While new data indicate that Japan did not experience a recession in 2015, after all, consumer spending and business investment are far from impressive. Given the weakness of its neighbor, China, it seems likely that Japan will have to do more to boost domestic demand to maintain growth at a favorable level. It will also need to implement structural reforms—the third arrow of Abenomics.

United Kingdom: Counting on the consumer
Amid all the headwinds that Britain’s export sector is facing, domestic demand will likely be the key to growth going forward. And this seems to be feasible given a combination of falling unemployment, rising real wages, low inflation, and cheap credit. The article also discusses the hot political topic of the referendum on UK membership in the European Union.

Special topic: Fed rate hike and economic instability in emerging markets
Emerging economies’ problem of increased capital outflows (primarily due to weak eco-nomic activity, the global interest rate outlook, and geopolitical factors) is likely to be exacerbated by the Fed’s tightening of its fiscal rate. But this is not the only risk that investors are nervous about, given that global economic activities are skewed on the downside. The question is whether a tighter monetary policy by the United States will trigger a domino effect in the global financial world.

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