Anticipate – Build future-proof strategies based on scenario planning
Scenario planning enables decision-makers to anticipate the future and design future-proof, yet flexible strategies by reducing complexity and adding dynamic capabilities. We model identified drivers into scenarios and define the best-suited strategic options to overcome and cope with uncertainty.
As the saying goes, uncertainty is the only certainty there is. And yet, we so often fail to address uncertainty in conventional strategic analyses and strategy development. While it is impossible to predict the future, scenario planning can help decision-makers better anticipate the future and design future-proof, yet flexible strategies by significantly reducing complexity and giving our clients the flexibility to provide a proactive, timely response.
Scenario planning provides a strong foundation for decision-making in times of great uncertainty. After identifying key driving forces for the future with both our AI-sensing technology and our expert interviews, we work hand-in-hand with clients to derive highly distinct, yet plausible future scenarios. The first step is a joint analysis of the driving forces we identified, which are then structured into critical uncertainties. These critical uncertainties have a high impact on the future while at the same time showing a high level of uncertainty.
We help clients to derive plausible future scenarios that provide a sound basis for their future-proof dynamic strategies. In one or multiple workshops, we work together to identify strategic implications and key success factors for each scenario that are tailored to the specific organizational context.
In this process step, we empower decision-makers to:
- Identify trends that have a considerable impact on shaping the future
- Challenge common assumptions with radical, yet plausible scenarios
- Understand the implications for the ecosystem and the enterprise
- Gain a joint perspective of different stakeholders on future-relevant topics
Beyond scenarios, we help executive teams deliberate and decide on the best-suited future-oriented strategy and strategic options. For this purpose, we use Monitor Deloitte’s Choice Cascade framework and our Wind Tunneling methodology to stress-test existing strategies and derive robust as well as dynamic strategic options.
Key advantages of our approach are:
- Fundamental analysis of how resilient existing strategies would be in various scenarios
- Early stage preparation for a multitude of unforeseen external developments
- Robust strategic options that are “no-regret-moves” across all four scenarios
- Ideal preparation for future uncertainties through anticipatory strategic options
Once the client and our team have developed four plausible future scenarios and defined a dynamic strategy for our client, it is vital to monitor the strategy and external changes on an ongoing basis to ensure continuous relevance of the strategy. By applying state-of-the art Artificial Intelligence expertise, we have developed the holistic monitoring tool, Gnosis. Learn more about how we aim to revolutionize strategy definition here.