Achieving proposed EU resource productivity targets would have positive impacts on EU28 GDP
The Study on modelling of the economic and environmental impacts of raw material consumption (BIO by Deloitte, Cambridge Econometrics) provides a quantitative analysis of different resource productivity (RP) targets for the EU, ranging from a modest improvement in RP (1% p.a.) to ambitious improvements (3% p.a.). Resource productivity in this study is defined as GDP per unit of raw material consumption (RMC). This indicator takes into account the full value-chain, including imported goods and materials.
- Resource productivity improvements of around 2% to 2.5% p.a. can be achieved with net positive impacts on EU28 GDP;
- There are around 2 million additional jobs in the scenario with 2% p.a. RP improvement in 2030;
- Sectors that sell raw materials, such as agriculture and mining, are likely to see lower demand for their products;
- Sectors that are intensive consumers of raw materials may be affected adversely from the costs associated with RP improvement, but at the same time may benefit from material input savings;
- Labour intensive sectors such as retail and consumer services benefit the most from lower labour taxes;
- The overall impact on CO2 emissions is small. This means that RP targets can be viewed as complementary to the existing EU targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite the uncertainty around the potential RP improvements within each EU sector, the outcome of the study suggests that it could be possible to meet RP targets through policies that lead to slightly higher rates of growth and employment across the EU.