Confronting uncertainty

COVID-19 is changing–or has already changed–our collective calculus of uncertainty because there is no reference case for the current crisis in living memory. Scenario thinking can enhance decision making now and in the future.

The power of scenario thinking

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Banking

 

Four scenarios look at how the COVID-19 pandemic could accelerate or redirect the global retail banking industry over the next one to three years. Building on several trends already in motion, the scenarios are built on important macro and banking sector uncertainties—those already evident, and others that are potentially plausible based on the severity of the pandemic and government actions. 

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Insurance

 

Explore our perspectives on how the insurance sector might evolve over the next one to three years so you can:

  • Understand how trends we see during the pandemic could shape what insurance may look like in the medium term.
  • Have productive conversations around the lasting implications and impacts of the crisis.
  • Identify decisions and actions that will improve resilience in this rapidly changing landscape.
  • Move beyond responding to the crisis and towards recovering in the near term.

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Life insurance and annuities

 

Insurers must prepare for the future, but uncertainties make it difficult to predict. These scenarios explore how the life insurance and annuities (L&A) industry landscape may develop over the next one to three years and helps leaders understand some of the potential medium-term implications of COVID-19.

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Payments

 

How will the COVID-19 pandemic accelerate or redirect the global payments industry over the next three to 12 months? And how might payments industry leaders prepare for this evolution? Explore four scenarios that global payments companies and resilient leaders should consider to help them identify opportunities, recover, and ultimately thrive in the world remade.

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Food

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in the food system, whose modern roots have been developed over decades. But in a matter of weeks that system has come under unprecedented pressure and has had to rapidly adjust. While it is not at the breaking point yet, the changes have significant implications to consumers, governments, and corporations alike. The report, A shock to the food system, analyzes scenarios and actions different players in the food system—including  producers, processors, distributors, and consumers—can take to recover and thrive moving forward.

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Travel, Hospitality and Leisure

 

Consider potential implications to the industry across various scenarios to help plan for long-term success for people, business, and society. Travel drivers play out differently across scenarios. We look at factors like:

  • Corporate and government spent on business travel
  • Individual and family willingness to spend on leisure travel
  • Impact across demographic and socioeconomic statuses
  • Geographic trends across domestic and international travel
  • Products and services desired by travelers

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Chemicals

 

The chemicals industry in Europe is not only a vital part of the European economy, it also a major supplier to key industries like Automotive. It provides crucial contributions to solve societal, economic, and technological challenges, representing a cornerstone of European’s future competitiveness. But what will that future look like? This report, Future of the chemicals value chain in Europe, looks at four scenarios that European chemical companies should consider as they navigate the “next normal.”

“The future is uncertain… but this uncertainty is at the very heart of human creativity” -Ilya Prigogine, Nobel Prize Laureate in chemistry, 1977 

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Mobility

Scenarios for transportation in a post-coronavirus world

For roughly a decade, there has been progress toward a new paradigm for moving people and goods. Powered by quickly evolving technologies, new business models, and shifting societal expectations, a more sustainable, equitable, efficient, and convenient future of mobility seemed inevitable. Then things changed.

COVID-19 has shut millions of people in their homes and disrupted every part of the transportation domain, but leaders can’t simply wait to see how tomorrow’s reshaped mobility ecosystem turns out. We offer four possible scenarios for the future of mobility.

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The COVID-19 crisis has created a moment of hyper-uncertainty for social sector organizations. No one knows how the future will unfold, but the tools of scenario planning can help social sector leaders better prepare their organizations for the different, possible futures that may unfold.

In this report, we explore:

  • Prudent Assumptions: Baseline realities that organizations will need to come to terms with—and hold onto—in order to begin moving forward in the midst of great uncertainty.
  • Critical Uncertainties: Factors that are not only volatile in terms of how they play out, but also have a high impact on how the future may unfold.
  • Scenarios for the Social Sector: Four provocative pictures of what the future could look like depending on the severity of the crisis and whether we come together as a nation—or come apart.
  • What to do next: Advice about how your organization can use the scenarios to build resilience and prepare for whatever the future holds.
  • Takeaways for the Sector: Informed by our interviews with social sector leaders, reflections on what the crisis may mean for the social sector as a whole.
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Get in touch

Jonathan Goodman

Jonathan Goodman

Monitor Deloitte Global Managing Partner
Mohit Mehrotra

Mohit Mehrotra

Monitor Deloitte Co-leader, APAC
Wayne Nelson

Wayne Nelson

EMEA Strategy Consulting Leader | Monitor Deloitte