Deloitte
  • Services

    What's New

    • Connecting for a resilient world

    • Deloitte 175

      Join us for a celebration of 175 years of making an impact that matters.

    • Climate & sustainability

      Guiding organizations to a more sustainable future.

    • Audit & Assurance

      • IASPlus
      • Assurance Services
      • Complex Accounting Assurance
      • Accounting Operations Assurance
      • Media & Advertising Assurance
      • Disruptive Events Assurance
      • Global Public Policy
    • Consulting

      • Strategy, Analytics and M&A
      • Customer and Marketing
      • Core Business Operations
      • Human Capital
      • Enterprise Technology & Performance
    • Risk Advisory

      • Strategic & Reputation Risk
      • Regulatory Risk
      • Financial Risk
      • Operational Risk
      • Cyber Risk
    • Financial Advisory

      • Mergers & Acquisitions
      • Restructuring Services
      • Deloitte Forensic
    • Legal

      • Legal Management Consulting
      • Legal Advisory Services
      • Legal Managed Services
      • Dbriefs Legal
      • Deloitte Legal Around the World
      • The Resilient General Counsel
    • Tax

      • Business Tax
      • Global Employer Services
      • Operations Transformation for Tax
      • Global Tax Reset
      • Tax Automation and AI
      • The Resilient Tax Leader
    • Deloitte Private

  • Industries

    What's New

    • Connecting for a resilient world

    • Future of Mobility

      Learn how this new reality is coming together and what it will mean for you and your industry.

    • Platforms and Ecosystems

      Enabling the Digital Economy

    • Consumer

      • Automotive
      • Consumer Products
      • Retail, Wholesale & Distribution
      • Transportation, Hospitality & Services
    • Energy, Resources & Industrials

      • Industrial Products & Construction
      • Mining & Metals
      • Oil, Gas & Chemicals
      • Power, Utilities & Renewables
      • The Future of Energy
    • Financial Services

      • Banking & Capital Markets
      • Insurance
      • Investment Management
      • Real Estate
    • Government & Public Services

      • Civil Government
      • Defense, Security & Justice
      • Health & Social Care
      • International Donor Organizations
      • Transport
    • Life Sciences & Health Care

      • Health Care
      • Life Sciences
    • Technology, Media & Telecommunications

      • Technology
      • Telecommunications, Media & Entertainment
  • Insights

    Deloitte Insights

    What's New

    • Deloitte Insights Magazine

      Leading beyond the disruption. Read the Spring 2021 issue now.

    • Deloitte Insights app

      Go straight to smart with daily updates on your mobile device.

    • Weekly economic update

      See what's happening this week and the impact on your business

    • By topic

      • AI & cognitive technologies
      • Analytics
      • Blockchain
      • Digital transformation
      • Diversity & inclusion
      • Economics
      • Human capital
      • Innovation
      • Leadership
      • Private companies
      • Risk management
      • Strategy
    • By sector

      • Automotive
      • Consumer products & retail
      • Financial services
      • Government & public services
      • Health care
      • Industrial products
      • Life sciences
      • Mining & metals
      • Oil, gas & chemicals
      • Power, utilities & renewables
      • Technology
      • Telecom, media & entertainment
      • Transportation & hospitality
    • Spotlight

      • Deloitte Insights Magazine
      • Climate and sustainability
      • Economic weekly update
      • Future of work
      • 2021 Human Capital Trends
      • 2021 Tech Trends
  • Careers

    What's New

    • Millennial Survey 2020

      Millennials and Gen Zs hold the key to creating a “better normal”

    • Alumni profiles

      Inspiring leaders

    • Job search

    • Experienced hires

    • Students

    • Life at Deloitte

    • Inclusion at Deloitte

    • Alumni

  • GLOBAL-EN Location: GLOBAL-English  
  • Contact us
  • GLOBAL-EN Location: GLOBAL-English  
  • Contact us

Welcome back

Still not a member? Join My Deloitte

In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth?

by Barb Renner, Brian Baker, Curt Fedder, Jagadish Upadhyaya
  • Save for later
  • Download
  • Share
    • Share on Facebook
    • Share on Twitter
    • Share on Linkedin
    • Share by email
Deloitte Insights
  • By topic
    By topic
    By topic
    • AI & cognitive technologies
    • Analytics
    • Blockchain
    • Digital transformation
    • Diversity & inclusion
    • Economics
    • Human capital
    • Innovation
    • Leadership
    • Private companies
    • Risk management
    • Strategy
  • By sector
    By sector
    By sector
    • Automotive
    • Consumer products & retail
    • Financial services
    • Government & public services
    • Health care
    • Industrial products
    • Life sciences
    • Mining & metals
    • Oil, gas & chemicals
    • Power, utilities & renewables
    • Technology
    • Telecom, media & entertainment
    • Transportation & hospitality
  • Spotlight
    Spotlight
    Spotlight
    • Deloitte Insights Magazine
    • Climate and sustainability
    • Economic weekly update
    • Future of work
    • 2021 Human Capital Trends
    • 2021 Tech Trends
    • GLOBAL-EN Location: GLOBAL-English  
    • Contact us
    2 minute read 18 February 2020

    In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? The future of fresh

    2 minute read 18 February 2020
    • Barb Renner United States
    • Brian Baker United States
    • Curt Fedder United States
    • Jagadish Upadhyaya India
    • Jagadish Upadhyaya India
    • Save for later
    • Download
    • Share
      • Share on Facebook
      • Share on Twitter
      • Share on Linkedin
      • Share by email

    ​Regardless of the economic cycle, people need to eat. As such, produce is a resilient fresh-food category.

    Currently, consumers are showing strong interest in fresh fruits and vegetables, thereby helping provide ample growth opportunities for companies in the fresh food ecosystem.1 But, with mixed economic signals heading into 2020, a question arises: Does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? In periods of economic expansion (as experienced in recent years), consumers tend to allocate more dollars to premium products. However, spending can wane due to economic uncertainty.


    Methodology: To address this question, we analyzed the US Consumer Expenditure Surveys data2 for produce. We compared it to processed food, alcohol, and nonfood categories (apparel and fashion, health care, and entertainment). We examined CAGR from 1995 to 2017, comparing growth during periods of economic expansion vs. recession.
     

    Learn more

    Explore the conusmer products and retail collection

    Read more about the Future of Fresh

    Learn about Deloitte’s services

    Go straight to smart. Get the Deloitte Insights app

    Our analysis reveals a nuanced picture. Overall, from 1995 to 2017, consumer expenditures on produce grew 1 percent CAGR. Growth also occurred in alcohol, apparel and fashion, entertainment, and processed food. Of note, only health care (at 2 percent) exceeded these categories (see figure).3

    During the Great Recession of 2007–2010, only fresh fruits and vegetables and health care grew (1.4 percent each). Beginning in 2011, most categories rebounded to pre-Recession levels. However, produce and health care not only came back, but far exceeded pre-Recession levels (at 2.3 percent and 4 percent, respectively).

    During the 2000–2001 recession, all categories experienced similar fluctuations. And while fresh fruits and vegetables declined 3.1 percent, it was likely due to the nascency of health and wellness trends which became more prevalent starting in 2010.4

    Regardless of the economic cycle, people need to eat. Our analysis reveals that, people are not going to give up their fruits and vegetables during a downturn economy. Indeed, produce is more resilient than both the food and nonfood categories examined. In addition, the segment has kept pace with the health care sector.

    The solid growth of produce is likely supported by two factors. First, by evolving efficiencies in supply chain processes that have led to produce being offered at a lower cost to the consumer.5 Second, by consumers’ growing interest in health and wellness.

    Fresh foods are the primary driver of growth in retail stores, accounting for 49 percent of all dollar sales growth in the fast-moving consumer goods sector.6 Strong upside potential exists for fresh produce due to not only consumer demand, but also increased distribution in convenience stores,7 quick serve restaurants,8 retail pharmacies,9 and several hospital systems experimenting with “food pharmacies” that link the importance of diet with health. With projected growth of 2.4 percent through 2023,10 produce may represent an attractive proposition for everyone in the fresh food ecosystem as a hedge during periods of economic uncertainty.

    To learn more, please see our recent study, The future of fresh: Strategies to realize value in the fresh food category.

    Acknowledgments

    The authors would like to thank Kavita Saini, manager, Deloitte Support Services India Pvt. Ltd.

    Cover image by: Viktor Koen

    Endnotes
      1. Barb Renner et al., The future of fresh: Strategies to realize value in the fresh food category, Deloitte Insights, November 12, 2019. View in article

      2. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Expenditure Surveys,” accessed January 29, 2020. View in article

      3. Healthcare in the Consumer Expenditure Surveys includes expenses on health insurance, medical services, drugs, and medical supplies. See: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Healthcare,” accessed January 29, 2020. View in article

      4. Statista, “Per capita consumption of fresh fruit in the United States from 2000 to 2018 (in pounds),” accessed January 29, 2020. View in article

      5. The Network Effect, “Fixing the 5 big problems in the food supply chain,” September 4, 2018. View in article

      6. Russell Redman, “Fresh foods power growth in fast-moving consumer goods,” Supermarket News, June 15, 2018. View in article

      7. Nima Rajan, “Convenience stores that offer healthy food and drink options see strong sales growth,” Xtalks, July 18, 2018. View in article

      8. Carol M. Bareuther, “Five QSR menu trends: More fresh produce,” Produce Business, August 27, 2019. View in article

      9. Amanda Schupak, “New York City is giving out prescriptions for free fruits and vegetables,” HuffPost, August 13, 2019.   View in article

      10. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Expenditure Surveys.” View in article

    Show moreShow lessShow less

    Topics in this article

    Retail & Distribution , Revenue Growth , Customer & Marketing

    Consulting Services for Consumer Products

    ​The consumer products industry today faces virtually unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Eroding brand loyalty, increased merger and acquisition activity, enduring recessionary consumer attitudes and the rising influence of digital technologies on shopping behavior all threaten traditional business models–but also give rise to new and exciting ones. In the face of changing consumer needs and behaviors, Deloitte’s Consumer Products team is working with clients to strengthen analytics, improve internal operations and develop new market-facing capabilities and channels. With experience across a wide range of sectors–including food and beverage, personal and household goods, agribusiness, apparel and footwear, and household durables–we position our clients to lead in the face of change.

    Learn more
    Get in touch
    Contact
    • ​Barbara L. Renner
    • Partner
    • Deloitte Tax LLP
    • brenner@deloitte.com
    • +1 612 397 4705

    Download Subscribe

    Related content

    img Trending

    The future of fresh

    Article 1 year ago
    img Trending

    Augmented shopping: The quiet revolution

    Article 1 year ago
    img Trending

    2020 Deloitte holiday retail survey

    Collection 5 months ago
    img Trending

    The adoption of disruptive technologies in the consumer products industry

    Podcast 1 year ago

    Explore more on cosumer products and retail

    • The consumer products bifurcation Article1 year ago
    • Spotlight on the cloud Article2 years ago
    • Spotlight on digital reality Article2 years ago
    • Asian consumer outlook Article2 years ago
    • Spotlight on artificial intelligence Article2 years ago
    Brian Baker

    Brian Baker

    Managing Director | Retail and Consumer Goods

    Brian is a managing director in Deloitte’s Retail and Consumer Goods practice, Deloitte Consulting LLP. His experience includes process design and evaluation, program assessments, systems implementation, managed services, and value delivery programs. Brian’s career experience covers multiple retail areas including: inventory management, procurement of both perishable and non-perishable goods, replenishment/allocation, promotional planning, pricing, third-party logistics, and import procurement. In addition, Brian has more than 15 years of store management experience, focusing on perishable departments. Brian has worked with leading national and regional grocery retailers in the areas of process redesign, supply chain solution implementation, SAP, and JDA software packages. He has additional experience with direct store delivery, scan-based-trading, open-to-buy management, hard lines, importing, and store operations.

    • brianbaker@deloitte.com
    • +1 785 580 8812
    Barb Renner

    Barb Renner

    Vice Chairman & US Leader | Consumer Products

    Barb is vice chairman and the US Consumer Products Leader, Deloitte LLP. She has more than 25 years of professional experience serving large multinational clients through a variety of leadership roles. Barb works directly with consumer and industrial product clients focusing on their regulatory environment, supply chain, technology and processes, and other issues and opportunities. She has also served in key leadership roles with Deloitte’s Women’s Initiatives and Junior Achievement.

    • brenner@deloitte.com
    • +1 612 397 4705
    Curt Fedder

    Curt Fedder

    Senior Manager | Deloitte Services LP

    Curt is a senior manager at Deloitte Services LP’s Center for Industry Insights and leads market research for consumer products. With expertise in consumer research, and a focus on brand equity, customer satisfaction, and advertising. Curt has led consumer research groups in consumer products and retail organizations. He has published articles in the Journal of Advertising Research and Quirks Marketing Research, and presented at market research industry conferences.

    • cfedder@deloitte.com
    • +1 312 486 3710
    Jagadish Upadhyaya

    Jagadish Upadhyaya

    Assistant Manager | Deloitte

    Jagadish is an assistant manager at Deloitte Support Services’ Center for Industry Insights, and supports research for consumer products. He has over 15 years of experience in conceptualizing and designing research projects, project management, and advanced statistical analysis. He has rich experience in writing high-impact thoughtware backed by detailed research and analytics. Upadhyaya has led client-specific multidisciplinary market research teams focusing on analysis of real-time market data and identifying trends in the consumer products and retail space. He is based in Hyderabad, India.

    • jupadhyaya@deloitte.com
    • +1 615 718 9645

    Share article highlights

    See something interesting? Simply select text and choose how to share it:

    Email a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
    Copy a customized link that shows your highlighted text.
    Copy your highlighted text.

    In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? has been saved

    In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? has been removed

    An Article Titled In an uncertain economy, does fresh produce spoil revenue growth? already exists in Saved items

     
    Forgot password

    OR

    Connect Accounts

    Connect your social accounts

    This is the first time you have logged in with a social network.

    You have previously logged in with a different account. To link your accounts, please re-authenticate.

    Log in with an existing social network:

    To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

    OR

    Log in with an existing site account:

    To connect with your existing account, please enter your password:

    Forgot password

    Subscribe

    to receive more business insights, analysis, and perspectives from Deloitte Insights
    ✓ Link copied to clipboard
    • Contact us
    • Submit RFP
    • Job search
    Follow Deloitte Insights:
    Office locations
    GLOBAL-EN Location: GLOBAL-English  
    About Deloitte
    • Newsroom
    • Social media
    • Leadership blog
    • Press releases
    • Submit an RFP
    • Job Search
    • Global office directory
    • Contact us
    • About Deloitte
    Services
    • Audit & Assurance
    • Consulting
    • Risk Advisory
    • Financial Advisory
    • Legal
    • Tax
    • Deloitte Private
    Industries
    • Consumer
    • Energy, Resources & Industrials
    • Financial Services
    • Government & Public Services
    • Life Sciences & Health Care
    • Technology, Media & Telecommunications
    Careers
    • Job search
    • Experienced hires
    • Students
    • Life at Deloitte
    • Inclusion at Deloitte
    • Alumni
    • About the Deloitte organization
    • Terms of use
    • Cookies
    • Privacy
    • Privacy Shield
    • Accessibility statement

     

    © 2021. For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.

     

    Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), its global network of member firms, and their related entities (collectively, the “Deloitte organization”). DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) and each of its member firms and related entities are legally separate and independent entities, which cannot obligate or bind each other in respect of third parties. DTTL and each DTTL member firm and related entity is liable only for its own acts and omissions, and not those of each other. DTTL does not provide services to clients. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more.