Brexit: The aftermath
Assessing the impact
Brexit brings many new uncertainties to Irish business. Depending on the sector and the market there will potential short to medium term downside risks, and there will be positives. However, Irish businesses have proven, particularly over the last number of years, how resilient and flexible we can be in responding to changing market circumstances.
The initial market reaction has been predictably negative and volatile. Predictions suggest that EU GDP will drop by 200bps to 1.4% across the Eurozone in 2017 because of this result. Corporate risk appetites are likely to dampen, and investment decisions may be put on hold.
However, it is important to remember that an exit will take 24 months from the time that the UK informs the EU of its intentions to exit. Businesses have time to prepare and adapt.
As you assess the impact of Brexit on your business today and over the coming weeks, what should you be considering?
Communication to key stakeholders is of critical importance. They will need to know that you understand the impacts of today’s result on your business, and that you are considering carefully how you can guide your business going forward.
In order to do this, detailed and considered planning is important. To help you, we suggest the following actions:
- Activate a Brexit taskforce in your company
- Identify the scenarios for your business and the areas that will be affected
- Prepare and take action where key opportunities exist, or where immediate risks may need to be mitigated
- Plan and monitor for triggers, as the situation evolves and the UK enters its two year negotiation period and we get a better understanding of our future trade relationships with the UK
We are ready to support you in this contingency planning exercise. We can assist you on scenario planning and wargame exercises that will support your business in developing an agile response to the changing marketplace. Over the coming weeks, we will be sharing industry specific playbooks that will help you assess the impact on the industry in which you operate.
We can also work with you to establish a ‘Brexit Lab’ where appropriate people from across your business can collaborate with selected expertise from Deloitte. This will enable you to:
- Accelerate your thinking on Brexit
- Identify the risks and opportunities most pertinent to you
- Identify initial opportunities and options to mitigate risks
The Brexit Lab will provide your taskforce with clear, multi-layered situations against which to consider likely impacts. This approach will prompt open discussion, help build consensus and support future planning and decision making.
Let us not forget that Ireland is a flexible, competitive, and highly skilled economy and an attractive place to do business - something that can play to our advantage as internationally mobile business considers its options in the post Brexit world.