India’s economic outlook

“India’s GDP took a big leap on Leap Day in 2024: The country’s remarkable growth rate of 8.4% in the third quarter of the fiscal year 20241 surpassed all expectations, as market analysts had penciled in a slower growth this quarter, between 6.6% and 7.2%. Deloitte’s projected growth for the quarter was between 7.1% and 7.4% (as published in January 2024). With substantial revisions to the data from the past three quarters of the fiscal year, India’s GDP growth already touched 8.2% year over year (YoY) in these quarters.

We have revised our growth prediction for this year to a range of 7.6% to 7.8%, up from our previous estimates due to GDP revisions and stronger-than-expected growth in fiscal 2024. However, we expect growth in the fourth quarter to be modest because of uncertainties related to India’s 2024 general elections and modest consumption growth. Our expectations for the near-term future remain in line with previous forecasts with a slight change in the forecast range due to a higher base effect in fiscal 2024. We believe GDP growth to be around 6.6% in the next fiscal year (fiscal 2025) and 6.75% in the year after (fiscal 2026), as markets learn to factor in geopolitical uncertainties in their investment and consumption decisions.”