The traditional idea that economic growth means increasing sales of trucks is breaking down. Commercial vehicle manufacturers are expected to sell barely any more heavy (HCVs) and medium commercial (MCVs) vehicles in 2026 than they do today. In short, sales are likely to stagnate over the next ten years.
Particularly in the highly developed commercial markets of the Triad, telematics and digitalization in transport will enable further increases in efficiency, meaning that fewer commercial vehicles will be required to transport the same or even a greater number of goods. Thus, the Triad markets are expected to shrink slightly at an annual rate of -0.9% from 2016 to 2021. After that, the decline is expected to accelerate to -1.4% per year until 2026. Despite all the current difficulties in the BRIC countries, the truck markets in these regions are likely to offer many opportunities and a CAGR of+1.6% until 2026.