Risk intelligence e-Newsletter
Global Risk Watch
Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulations.
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Global Risk Watch
28 December 2018 Vol.45
The Power of the US Trade War / Restarting to develop internal models – FRTB final agreement / Economic Uneasiness in the EU
The world stock markets have started to look increasingly shaky. At the beginning of December, stock prices temporarily rallied because of the slightly dovish stance taken by the FRB as well as China and the US agreeing to a 90-day tariff hike cease-fire at a recent leadership conference. However, the rally turned out to be more of a flash in the pan.
5 November 2018 Vol.44
That which follows in the shadow of populism / Development in cross-border financial regulation / The durability of China’s economic stimulus
Amidst a continued robust US economy and stabilizing prices, we are beginning to see the signs of a peak-out of both the super-charged business climate and the earnings of the GAFA companies. In this environment, the US stock market experienced some corrections in October and faced increased uncertainties in both trade friction and the outcome of the US mid-term elections. The economy then suddenly swung rather rudely back towards a risk-on situation because of the as-predicted results of the mid-terms.
31 October 2018 Vol.43
The course of the American economy, a stock market at odds between confidence and anxiety / Time to apply a risk appetite framework / The risks that may follow in the wake of the US mid-term elections
The US economy continues to clip along and long-term interest rates are starting to rise. However even though the labor market continues to tighten, wages that showed signs of picking up have once again cooled. There is also no particular sign that an acceleration of prices is likely to strengthen.
28 September 2018 Vol.42
Increasing risk of contagious populism / The effects of the global financial regulatory reforms on the financial system / The impact of US Trade Policy on Japan
In the run-up to the US mid-term elections, the approval rating for the Trump administration seems to be trending downwards as one event after another rocks the electoral boat. As well, the Trump administration’s trend towards the extreme when it comes to trade or foreign affairs is also becoming stark – particularly so in the case of worsening trade friction between the US and China.
31 August 2018 Vol.41
Do populist politics not only allow a vent for people's frustration but also strengthen the sustainability of the current robust global economy? / PDCA of cunduct risk management / Thinking critically about the spread of an economic shock from Turkey
Even amid a robust global economy the strength of the American economy is clearly visible. The EU and Japanese economies are showing a trend towards decelerating growth likely due to dwindling slack in the labor markets and some concerns about trade friction.
30 July 2018 Vol.40
From the US to Emerging economies via China: Financial Crisis Express is finally departing? / Feasibility of resolution plans / Is China strengthen its efforts to prop up the business environment?
The US-led trade war is showing signs of getting more serious. In addition to the tariffs already levied on major countries' steel and aluminum, the US has also levied the first volley of additional tariffs (USD 34 billion) meant to correct the US/China trade imbalance. At the same time, the Chinese have levied commensurate retaliatory tariffs on the US.
29 June 2018 Vol.39
Exit from extraordinary monetary easing: the US way and the European way / The Volcker Rule revision would relax regulatory compliance burden / Europe's returning debt risk?
In the US, the strong business environment and tightening labor market continue apace. While raises in wages and prices have calmed somewhat they are still roughly within the Fed's 2% target. Amid this, the FRB decided at the June FOMC to raise rates - something which was in-line with market expectations.
31 May 2018 Vol.38
China: inclined toward putting off hard structural policies? / Financial benchmark reform: a grand implementation plan required / Thoughts on the spread of depreciation among emerging currencies
In the US, the inflation rate has finally reached the FRB’s target level of 2%. Against this, we now see both the upward trend in the US long-term interest rates as well as a strong USD, which then cause disruptions in the previously stable exchange rates of emerging economies.
27 April 2018 Vol.37
Jittery Emerging Economies Await a Season of Politics / Review of the Fundamental Review / US Core CPI Growth Rate the Highest in A Year
The perfect conditions that advanced economies have enjoyed may see a hint of cloud; the US, EU, and Japan have slightly felt a shift towards economic growth deceleration. The countries may, sooner rather than later, run up against a wall that limits their economic growth. Evidence of this can be seen in the US, where signs, however small, have appeared to show that wages and prices are creeping up once more.
30 March 2018 Vol.36
The Creeping Shadow of Global Discord / Commitment to code of conduct: the FX Global Code / The State of Exports to the US
Last month’s concern that wages and prices in the US would shoot up have abated somewhat. Consequently, there has been a decline in fears that the current goldilocks conditions of the bond and stock markets will collapse.
This decline was mainly thanks to wage and price numbers published in March, of which expansion rates have significantly calmed as compared to February.
28 February 2018 Vol.35
Will 2018 also be the year of fiscal policy? / Enhanced cryptocurrency regulation / Will the Big-Boned Policy point to fiscal reforms?
Some of my readers might be a little confused by this month’s title – “Will 2018 also be the year of fiscal policy?” as I had just last month I asked “Will 2018 be the year of monetary policy?” This is not necessarily me changing my mind, but instead it means that both monetary and fiscal policies are likely to be facing significant changes during this year in a somewhat combined manner.
31 January 2018 Vol.34
2018: A year of challenges for major central banks? / Towards the enhanced Pillar 2 / Recessions and the Flattening Yield Curve
As we enter 2018, interest rates in developed countries have finally started to move. 10-year US Treasury yields topped 2.6% and the rising long-term interest rates in the EU and even Japan are notable. In a robust economy such as we are currently experiencing, (and as the labor market has tightened in response) it would not have been unusual had long term interest rates started to rise long before now.
28 December 2017 Vol.33
U.S. tax cut – what it means for the economy / The real race begins now: the final agreement on the Basel III reform / Fiscal risks associated with large scale tax cuts
12 December 2017 Vol.32
The consequences of “stagnant prices” / Prescription for conduct risk / A brief look at wage trends
6 November 2017 Vol.31
The curious strength of emerging economies / The “last few meters” towards an agreement; the Basel III reforms / Rising wages pushing inflation acceleration
29 September 2017 Vol.30
The Chinese economy at risk of facing several structural challenges / Dilemma between transparency and liquidity / Deferring the debt ceiling issue to end of year
31 August 2017 Vol.29
The world after the coming recession / The Trump administration proceeds with financial regulatory reform / Long rain to cool down the overheating economy?
28 July 2017 Vol.28
The background of a possible concerted policy shift by leading central banks / Japanese banks need to step up for IRRBB implementation / Normalization of monetary policies equal further yen depreciation?
30 June 2017 Vol.27
The FRB as being hawkish / Banco Popular and Monte dei Paschi / Concerns loom over not only Brexit, but inflation
31 May 2017 Vol.26
The dark side of the current robust economy / Investigation report on the illegal sales practices of a major financial institution / Adverse wind creeping up on the stable Asian economy
28 April 2017 Vol.25
Would the normalized Trump regime be able to hold back rewinding of the Trump rally? / Restoring the Glass-Steagall Act / Is the U.S. personal consumption headed to a deceleration trend?
29 March 2017 Vol.24
Are we better to focus on the impacts of re-emergence of “left” rather than “far-right” in Europe? / The prospects of the global financial regulation / ECB’s stance and the tone of prices
28 February 2017 Vol.23
Challenges Facing Post-deflation Monetary Policies / The U.S. Presidential Executive Order and Global Financial Regulation / Reconsideration of Primary Balance Surplus Target
31 January 2017 Vol.22
Will a reality TV show becomes your new reality? / The extension of Basel III agreement and impact of new administration in the US / US corporate profit and the strong dollar
28 November 2016 Vol.21
Premonition of ‘Inflation’ / Basel Committee and the Prospect of International Regulation / Will the Market Goes Back Where it was at the Beginning of This Year?
2 November 2016 Vol.20
“Winners” and “Losers” in the New Trump Presidency / Financial Regulation Policy of the Trump Regime / Long-term Interest Rate Control
28 October 2016 Vol.19
Narrower Paths for Major Central Banks Now Face the Risk of Being Clogged by Another European Shock / Consequences of Endless Misconduct by Major Financial Institutions / Whether Inflated China Debt is Close to Crisis / Emerging Countries Business Risk Series -Cambodia-
29 September 2016 Vol.18
Global Financial Market is in a “lull” before facing a possible “super typhoon” / Signs of Conversion from Capital Oriented Regulations to Best Practice Oriented / Change in the Shape of the Yield Curve
1 September 2016 Vol.17
Central Banks are Faced with Deepening Agony as Monetary Policy Reaches its Limits / Conduct Risk Measures at a Crossroads / Coping with China’s overcapacity problem
29 July 2016 Vol.16
Overheating Financial Market Brought on by a ‘Fearful’ Spate of Stress Events / The Impact of Strengthening Regulations in Asset Management Industry to be Noted / After the Brexit, Conflicting Signals of Uncertainties in Stock and Bond Markets
30 June 2016 Vol.15
Concerns for Brexit Reveals some Weaknesses in the Japanese Economy / Moving from Increased Regulation to Emphasizing Supervision / Looking at State-owned Enterprise Reforms from Fixed Asset Investment
20 May 2016 Vol.14
Widening Populism is Becoming an Annoying Imbalance for World Economy / Panama Papers: a New Seed of Headache for the Financial Services Industry? / Another Sign of Real Estate Bubble in China
28 April 2016 Vol.13 (1 year anniversary)
Japan’s Economy Struggling in the Phase of Global Risk-Off Holidays / Perhaps the Financial Regulation Strengthening has Gone Too Far? / Uncertainties Toward Abenomics in the Future
25 March 2016 Vol.12
A Holiday for Global Risk-Off / The Direction of Conduct Risk Management Framework / Concerns for Economic Downturn in the US has Slightly Subsided
24 February 2016 Vol.11
Worsening Allergies to “Uncertainty” in the Global Financial Marketsrt / What are the Consequences of Regulatory Reforms on the Market Risk? / Significantly Revised US Monetary Policy Outlook
27 January 2016 Vol.10
When Stopgap Measures in Emerging Countries Fall Apart / Movement hinting to expand the regulatory scopes / Emerging Countries Once Again to face Strong Headwinds
24 December 2015 Vol.9
The World Economy is Frightened by The Policy Brake Which Might Further Harden Its Uphill Climbing / Loosening Banking Regulations, and Strengthening of Non-bank Regulations? / Are Rise of the US high-yield bond yields, an Indicative Warning for the Stock Market?
27 November 2015 Vol.8
Temporary Lull? Before Another Storm in the Financial Market / The Final Phase? Framework to Resolve “Too Big to Fail” / Likelihood of December Interest Rate Hike Reemerged
22 October 2015 Vol.7
Deja vu? An Increasing Dovish Stance of Monetary Policy in Advanced Economies / A Sign of Globalization of the American Way of Fund Regulation / Signs of Economic Deceleration in the US
30 September 2015 Vol.6
Government's Governance is Tested in the Emerging Economies / Derivative Regulatory Reforms Enter in a New Stage / A Strong Headwind Facing the Emerging Economies / Global Increase of Muslim Population
31 August 2015 Vol.5
Chinese Economy – Becoming Uncontrollable? / Risk Appetite Framework is re-emphasized / Creeping Deflationary Risk in Chinese Economy / Increasing Global Population and its impacts
28 July 2015 Vol.4
Shaken by Greece and China / Authorities’ Stance on Conduct Risk became more and more clear / The UTokyo Daily Price Index: Rising price of Household and Miscellaneous Goods
26 June 2015 Vol.3
Has the prospect of ‘Secular Stagnation’ receded? / Again, Critical Regulatory Reforms for the Management of Japanese Bank
26 May 2015 Vol.2
Unrest in the Financial Assets Market / Excessive and Insufficient Regulations
13 May 2015 Vol.1
Yellow light for US economy? / High alert for liquidity illusion