Predictions

2018 Economic Outlook Vol.1

Real strength of the global economy challenged– can it justify soaring asset prices?

In the early summer, troubling indicators, like weak consumer spending, and a series of hurricanes cast a dark cloud over the US economy. It has since made a turn-around and is once again very robust.

Real strength of the global economy challenged– can it justify soaring asset prices?

Tsuyoshi Oyama (Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) / Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader)

 

Looking back to the global macroeconomic condition up to the end of October

1. Advanced economies remain robust, headed by the US that recovers from the summer doldrums 

In the early summer, troubling indicators, like weak consumer spending, and a series of hurricanes cast a dark cloud over the US economy. It has since made a turn-around and is once again very robust. Consumer spending has also recovered, while capital investments and imports remain strong. 3Q growth was pushed as high as 3% SAAR, on the heels of 3.6% in the previous quarter. The current economic expansion is gradually approaching the longest period of growth in the post-World War II era. With all of this as background, US stock prices continue to set record highs.

The European and Japanese economies also continue to trend positive. The European PMI posted its highest levels since 2011, while Japan’s Tankan survey revealed that among large manufacturers the business sentiment diffusion index (DI) is at its highest level in 10 years... (download full article) 

(PDF, 444KB)

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