The background of a possible concerted policy shift by leading central banks

Global Risk Watch Vol.28 July 2017

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# The background of a possible concerted policy shift by leading central banks
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy(CRMS) at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC/Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader 

The global macroeconomic and market condition in the past months had been seen as somewhat weird as the strong macroeconomic indicators and stock market movements [or a recently emerging hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB)], and a bullish bond market (or a continued or even declining low interest rates) coexisted.

*Please download the full article


(PDF, 193KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Japanese banks need to step up for IRRBB implementation
Shiro Katsufuji, Director, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Implementation date is approaching for interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) regulation, one of the Basel III reforms.
In June, Financial Services Agency of the Japanese government (JFSA) published the draft amendments to the Supervisory Guidelines regarding the monitoring of interest rate risks, which will become effective in March 2018 for internationally active banks in Japan.

*Please download the full article


(PDF, 190KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Normalization of monetary policies equal further yen depreciation?
Toshikazu Kumagai, Senior Staff, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

Long term interest rates are on the raise in developed countries.
Views on normalization of monetary policies such as asset purchase reductions by FRB and ECB is expanding, signaling an end to monetary easing policies.
On the other hand, the central bank of Japan (BOJ) emphasized its approach to limit the long term interest rate hikes through bidding and other operations.

*Please download the full article


(PDF, 363KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Outside Lectures & Conference】

# The Institute of Financial Risk management and Audit (July 13, 2017 / Tokyo) 
Senior members of Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC presented at “Special Seminar: Macro environment evaluation from risk appetite perspective, and development of risk appetite framework in different industries.”

Tsuyoshi Oayama (Partner / Head of CRMS, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC)
“Trends in global economy and financial regulation, and risk appetite”

Hideyuki Goto (Director, CRMS, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC)
“Recent trends in insurance industry and their linkage with risk appetite framework”

# Regional Banks Association of Japan (July 18, 2017 / Tokyo) 
Tsuyoshi Oyama presented “Risk appetite perspective effective for market/securities departments” at “Securities investment research seminar: portfolio strategy course.”


【Article Contribution & Other Activities】

# Deloitte CFO Signals Japan : 2017 Q1 *Only available in Japanese
Deloitte has conducted the 7th regular survey on CFOs in Japan.
This survey analyzes the change in awareness of CFOs in a chronological order as well as the latest outlook.
It also investigates the awareness on risk scenarios of Japan and major countries from a macroeconomic perspective.
The hot topics include the impact of digitalization on corporate management and CFOs (survey period: April 3 to 14).
CRMS has contributed to the examination part of the survey.

# Hokenmainichi Shimbun Co. Ltd. “Insurance ERM Basics” (published on April 7, 2017) *Only available in Japanese
Shigeyuki Goto (Director, CRMS) has published “Insurance ERM Basics” from Hokenmainichi Shimbun Co. Ltd.

# ”Brexit Impact from a Macroeconomic Perspective ” available online *Only available in Japanese
CRMS provides timely information on the impact and key aspects of Brexit from a macroeconomic perspective on the special website of the Deloitte Tohmatsu Group.

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