The Chinese economy at risk of facing several structural challenges

Global Risk Watch Vol.30 September 2017

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# The Chinese economy at risk of facing several structural challenges
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy(CRMS) at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC/Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader 

Personal consumption indices have shown some weakness lately in the US economy, but some price indicators have finally begun to show signs of strength and increase.
The political arena is still in “turmoil” conditions. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) will likely begin changing its monetary policy stance (shrinking the B/S from October, possible rate hike in December).

*Please download the full article


(PDF, 261KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Dilemma between transparency and liquidity
Shiro Katsufuji, Director, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Regulatory reform is moving forward to enhance transparency in market trading.
MiFID2/MiFIR in Europe is a pioneering example.
The regulation is planned for implementation in 2018, for which market participants are adding final touches to trade reporting systems and process development to comply with transparency requirements.

*Please download the full article


(PDF, 194KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Deferring the debt ceiling issue to end of year
Toshikazu Kumagai, Senior Staff, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

In the United States (US), the government dodged a possible shutdown in October as the application for raising the debt ceiling was deferred to December and a provisional budget was settled.
The debt ceiling issue, in particular, which was suspended since 2016, the US government revisited the subject in March 2017 and emphasized the urge to appeal a raise in the debt ceiling while applying emergency funds as management measures.

*Please download the full article


(PDF, 378KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Outside Lectures & Conference】

# Financial Risk Management forum 2017 sponsored by JTB Communications Design (October 26, 2017 / Tokyo) 
Tsuyoshi Oyama (partner / head of CRMS) will be presenting “the trend in international financial regulations and strengthening the risk management for emerging markets” at the “financial risk management forum 2017” sponsored by JTB Communications Design. 


【Article Contribution & Other Activities】

# Mainichi Insurance newspaper, lecturer in Shizuoka university (published on September 19, 2017)
Shigeyuki Goto delivered a lecture at the Shizuoka University, faculty of Agriculture on the subject of “environment risk theory” discussing “the social burden around the distribution system (for insurance) in environment risk” as the theme.
*This course comprehensively defines environment risk as "the negative impact on ecosystems and human society in the interaction between nature and human beings"

# Seminar Info Co., Ltd. “Financial Regulation” magazine, September issue (published on September 11, 2017)
Shigeyuki Goto contributed an article “Rising interests in individual behavior and culture along with expectation for ERM effectiveness” in the “Regulation Frontline” section.

# Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Monthly Magazine “Accounting Information” (September 2017 issue) *Only available in Japanese
Tsuyoshi Oyama contributed an article, “2017 Global Economy Outlook ? Major economies’ central banks on the move,” on possible phenomena in global economy and finance from a risk management perspective.

# Deloitte CFO Signals Japan : 2017 Q2 - How CFOs/CFO organizations engage with cloud computing and AI *Only available in Japanese
Deloitte has conducted the 8th regular survey on CFOs in Japan.
This survey analyzes the change in awareness of CFOs in a chronological order and the latest outlook in the “survey items on the economic environment” section.
It also investigates the awareness on risk scenarios of Japan and major countries from a macroeconomic perspective.
This issue’s hot topics include how CFOs/CFO organizations engage with cloud computing and AI (survey period: July 3 to 14, 2017).
CRMS has contributed to the observation and analysis part of the survey.

# Hokenmainichi Shimbun Co. Ltd. “Insurance ERM Basics” (published on April 7, 2017) *Only available in Japanese
Shigeyuki Goto (Director, CRMS) has published “Insurance ERM Basics” from Hokenmainichi Shimbun Co. Ltd.

# ”Brexit Impact from a Macroeconomic Perspective ” available online *Only available in Japanese
CRMS provides timely information on the impact and key aspects of Brexit from a macroeconomic perspective on the special website of the Deloitte Tohmatsu Group.

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