Predictions

Yellow light on US economy?

Global Risk Watch Vol.1 2015.5

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks / Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

◆Yellow light for US economy? 
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Centre for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touché Tohmatsu LLC.

Since the second half of last year, the trend of world economy and finance mainly reflected the following factors: (1) resilient US economy: (2) QE and gradually recovering EU and Japanese economy on the backdrop of (1): (3) structural slowdown of Chinese economy, and: (4) intensified geopolitical upheaval in Ukraine / Middle East. (1) & (2) with global overheated asset market and the expectation of interest rate hike in US will eventually lead to capital outflow in the emerging market. Meanwhile, (3) led to decline in crude oil price and economic slump of emerging countries (especially resource- rich countries). Thus, the macro-trends of (1)-(3) have set the tone of world economy even though, at times, escalating geopolitical upheaval could influence crude oil price and the outlook of EU economy in the opposite directions. 

When in these and looked back the movement of the past one month , major feature point three downloaded from the left

 

 

◆High alert for liquidity illusion 
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager, Centre for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touché Tohmatsu LLC. 

Looking over the internal and external financial regulatory changes in the past month, two regulatory tightenings deserve some attentions. 
The first is strengthening of stress testing carried out by authorities. 
The second is the discussion in Europe to strengthen risk evaluation for sovereign exposures. 
While the trend of regulatory tightenings have been observed, the unintended consequences of regulatory reforms for the past years and accommodative monetary policies by central banks have also gained attentions this month. 

Regulatory developments downloaded from the left that can have a direct and indirect effect on the above-mentioned specific matters and Japanese companies

〔PDF, 147KB〕

Publications

◆ ‘Building Risk Appetite Framework’ 
‘Building Risk Appetite Framework’ published by CHOUKEIZA-SHA  is written in Japanese by Tsuyoshi Oyama, Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy and Riho Sato, Manager. Risk Appetite Framework (RAF) is a new framework of strengthening risk management dubbed as “Risk management revolution” after the global financial crisis. This book illustrates on-going development of RAF, providing an insights and step-by-step of real case studies as guidance for financial institutions to develop its unique RAF.

Outside lectures

◆Panel discussion at “The Asian Banker Summit” (April 15th)
Tsuyoshi Oyama participated in the panel discussion on Sifis and banks’ failure in “The Asian Banker Summit” held in Hong Kong between April 14th and 16th. 
Regulatory Dialogue on Current Thinking on SIFIs and Cross-Border Bank Resolution.
This session focused on the thinking driving Asian regulators’ approach towards managing domestic systematically important financial institutions and their assessment of prevailing bank resolution frameworks.

 

 ‘Risk Japan 2015’ (June 11th)
Risk Japan 2015 conference, hosted by Asia Risk will be held on June 11th. At this conference, a wide variety of topics on risk management for financial institutions will be presented and active discussions will be led by professionals from supervisory authorities, financial institutions, and consulting firms. Deloitte Touché Tohmatsu is the principal sponsor and Head of CRMS Tsuyoshi Oyama, Senior Manager, Taro Asai will present during the conference. Director Shigeyuki Goto as a panelist and Senior Manager Koichi Iwai as a moderator will also participate in the event. 

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