Predictions

When Stopgap Measures in Emerging Countries Fall Apart

Global Risk Watch Vol.10 January 2016

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

◆When Stopgap Measures in Emerging Countries Fall Apart
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

It was just last month when the global financial market has managed to absorb the shocks from the first US interest rate hike in nine and a half years. Entering into the New Year, however, the market has been faced with deep turmoil as the if monkey, or this year’s Chinese zodiac animal bounces around in the trees. One of the triggers is an outright failure of the communication policy over currency devaluation in China.

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Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

◆Movement hinting to expand the regulatory scopes
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager,Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

As we indicated in a previous month’s Global Risk Watch (eNewsletter), regarding the regulatory trends of the past few months, the movement towards tightening banking regulations has somewhat toned down, while regulations on ‘non-banks’ are likely to be strengthened. The latter trend is certainly gaining momentum. Moreover, the enforced targets are not limited to market and transaction regulation alone and will seemingly extend to “relationships between the bank and shadow banking”.

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Highlight of Indicator for this Month

◆ Emerging Countries Once Again to face Strong Headwinds
Yasuhiro Sobue, Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

Since last August, the strengthened headwinds against emerging economies and financial markets have once again gained momentum. The symbolic indicator is the movement of foreign exchange rates, as the currency depreciation pace is accelerating in many countries, while several countries have exceeded the level we have seen last August.

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Seminars & Conference & Publications

【Outside lectures】 

◆ KIER Economic Research Foundation Sponsored Symposium ‘Stress Testing –Current Status and Issues’ (January 23rd, 2016)
Yasuhiro Sobue (Manager at CRMS)  joined this symposium as the lecturer.

>>Detail Information (Japanese)
 

【Other activities】

◆ Deloitte Study Session ‘Workshops for the Press’ (December 21st , 2015)
Deloitte hosted a study session specifically for the press, theme on ‘Business market forecast in 2016, impact and responses of Japanese companies’. Journalists from 11 major business publications and media participated in this workshop. Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) discussed regarding ‘Financial market outlook in 2016, and impacts and countermeasures as a company’. Hitoshi Motegi (Director at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC) discussed ‘Review of global business risk, and the outlook of 2016’.

◆ Contribution for “Risk Management Today” (January 15th, 2016 Published)
“Risk Management Today, January 15th 2016 issue magazine” published by Association of Risk Management will features paper regarding ‘Risk Appetite Framework (RAF) to opening up the management to take risk’, and overview and merits for the management, authored by Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader).

 

【In the media】

◆ The Hoken (Insurance) Mainichi Shinbun publication (November 26th, 2015 Published)
Shigeyuki Goto (Director at CRMS) lectured regarding ‘Strengthening the risk literacy and expanding the scope of research study area’, as part of Sophia University Faculty of Economics educational innovation program. The press review  for the lecture was published by Hoken (Insurance) Mainichi Shinbun on November 26th, 2015).

>>Detail Information (Japanese)


◆ The Japan Financial News (December 18th, 2015 Published)
The publication indicated that macroeconomic indicators produced by CRMS at Deloitte is widely used by during regional banks’ stress test. 

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