Predictions

Japan’s Economy Struggling in the Phase of Global Risk-Off Holidays

Global Risk Watch Vol.13 April 2016

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# Japan’s Economy Struggling in the Phase of Global Risk-Off Holidays
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

Since late February, the global risk-off trends have gradually subsided.
This trend has continued over the last month as the US FRB (Federal Reserve Board) remains in a dovish stance and provided a strong indication of postponing the interest rate hike during the April FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
This ease-off has also been supported by the fact that the decelerating Chinese economy has finally begun to show signs of bottoming out, and crude oil prices have risen on the backdrop of an expected agreement on production output increase among oil-producing countries (however, the meeting held on April 17th in Qatar did not reach an agreement only to produce a temporary fall in crude oil price).

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(PDF,415KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Perhaps the Financial Regulation Strengthening has Gone Too Far?
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager,Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

In the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), regulatory development work has become somewhat hurried.
Only within the past one month, several important papers have been published, including consultative document on “Reducing the variation in credit risk-weighted assets – constraints on the use of internal model approaches” and “Regulatory consistency assessment programme(RCAP)-Analysis of risk-weighted assets for credit risk in the banking book” in the area of credit risk internal rating approaches, and also consultative document on “Revisions to the Basel III leverage ratio framework” regarding leverage ratio.

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(PDF,272KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Uncertainties Toward Abenomics in the Future
Yasuhiro Sobue, Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

In recent months, data indicating uncertainties toward Abenomics have increased.
In the financial market, speculative investors’ (non-commercial sector) USD/JPY future position turned to ‘net long position’ since the beginning of the year, maintained the position afterwards (exhibition 2).

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(PDF,462KB)

Seminars & Conference & Publication

【Outside lectures】

# The Asian Banker Summit 2016(Will be held on May 10th – 12th, 2016, Hanoi, Vietnam)
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) will join the guest and speaker to discuss in the topics of Financial Markets Dialogue-“Asia’s commodity markets and the impact of China’s changing commodity appetite amidst slowing growth” and also “Organisational Structure, Teamwork and People”.

>>Detail Information (via external event website)

# Risk Japan 2016 (Will be held on June 9th)
Risk Japan 2016 conference, hosted by Asia Risk will be held on June 9th.
At this conference, a wide variety of topics on risk management for financial institutions will be presented and active discussions will be led by professionals from supervisory authorities, financial institutions, and consulting firms.
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu is the principal sponsor and Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader), Shigeyuki Goto  (Director at CRMS), Koichi Iwai (Senior Manager at CRMS), and Taro Asai (Senior Manager at Financial Industry Group) will join this conference as presenters and panel moderators. 

>>Detail Information (via external event website) 


# Informa Finance Conference ‘Fundamental and future measures for insurance ERM’  (Will be held on March 8th, Singapore)
In this conference, Shigeyuki Goto (Director at CRMS) will present as a lecturer. 

【Seminar Report】

# Thomson Reuters Conference “3rd Annual Japan Regulatory Summit” (Held on April 12th, Tokyo)
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC joined as a key partner of Thomson Reuters have successfully held  the 3rd Annual Japanese Regulatory Summit, running on 12 April 2016 at the Imperial Hotel, Tokyo. Overwhelmingly, more than 500 people have attended the event.

>>Detail Information (via external event website) 

【Other Activity】

# Article in Weekly Economist (April 19th, edition)
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) has been featured in the edition regarding his article towards negative interest rate in Japan.

>>Detail Information (via external website) *Japanese only 

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