Predictions

Concerns for Brexit Reveals some Weaknesses in the Japanese Economy

Global Risk Watch Vol.15 June 2016

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# Concerns for Brexit Reveals some Weaknesses in the Japanese Economy
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 
*This article is written on June 19th, 2016.

In last month’s article, we referred to the recent stability of global markets as a “castle in the sand”.
Soon after, we have seen parts of the base already beginning to collapse.
The biggest factor is the outlook of Brexit (UK exits from EU) referendum to be held on June 23rd, seemingly pro-exit supports has suddenly took the lead in the opinion polls.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF,272KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Moving from Increased Regulation to Emphasizing Supervision
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager,Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

The issue of how long regulatory reform will continue is still of paramount importance to financial institutions.
In this e-Newsletter magazine we referred to the comment by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Chairman Carney, saying “no Basel IV”, and Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) Commissioner’s speech on “ from static regulation to dynamic supervision”.
Recently, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) General Manager Caruana directly joined such discussions.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF,272KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Looking at State-owned Enterprise Reforms from Fixed Asset Investment
Toshikazu Kumagai, Senior Staff, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

TIn China, the year-on-year growth of fixed asset investments (year-to-date of total amount) in May fell below 10% for the first time since December 2000.
Looking at it more closely, it is worth noting that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) faced with excess capacity problems have now expanding their investments.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF,390KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Deloitte Seminars & Conference】

# Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Financial Services Industry Business Seminar (Will be held on July 7th, Tokyo)
In this annual seminar, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader), will lecture regarding “Nine trends for deciphering the global financial regulations”, Shigeyuki Goto (Director at CRMS) –“ The New Normal and challenges for Insurance ERM”.


 

【Outside Lectures & Conference】

# Risk Japan 2016 (Held on June 9th, 2016, Shangri-La Hotel, Tokyo)
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu was the principal sponsor of the upcoming Risk Japan 2016 conference, hosted by Risk Asia.
Deloitte senior members participated as speakers and panel discussion moderators.
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) – “The tide of "de-globalisation" and its impacts on global financial regulation-how should we swallow this new trend?”
Shigeyuki Goto (Director at CRMS) led the Insurance Panel discussion on “Steadily moving towards the new solvency regime”
Koichi Iwai (Senior Manager at CRMS) led Panel discussion on “The recent global development of financial regulations – the new trends and their possible impacts on financial institutions’ business optimisation”
Kanji Okazaki (Senior Manager at Financial Industry Group) – “Will reduction of variation in risk-weighted assets for credit risk become a road to Basel IV?”

>>Detail Information (via external event website) 


# OBIC Information System Seminar (Held on June 14th, 2016, Tokyo)
In this seminar, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) discussed regarding “Whether negative interest rate policy can save Japan? – A forward looking risk management to be required under increasing uncertainties of the global economy”. 


# NTT Data Seminar (Held on June 17th, 2016, Tokyo)
In this seminar, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) discussed regarding “Increasing roles of RAF- risk management under the rising uncertainties of external economic environment and regulatory environment”. 


# *Special Event* Lectures at the Institute of Financial Risk management and Audit (Held on June 28th, 2016, Tokyo)
In this seminar, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) lectured regarding “At the forefront of Risk Appetite Framework”.
Koichi Iwai (Senior Manager at CRMS) –“ Domestic and overseas regulatory trends on RAF and stress testing”, Takayuki Sato (Senior Manager at CRMS) –“At the forefront of stress testing”.

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