Predictions

Global Financial Market is in a “lull” before facing a possible “super typhoon”

Global Risk Watch Vol.18 September 2016

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# Global Financial Market is in a “lull” before facing a possible “super typhoon”
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

The calm global financial market we discussed in August has continued into September.
Of course, it is hard to predict the outcome of the US FRB’s (Federal Reserve Board) FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Statement which are scheduled for 20th or 21st of September, but if the outcome stays in line with market expectations, it is possible for the “lull” market to continue for a while.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF, 360KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Signs of Conversion from Capital Oriented Regulations to Best Practice Oriented
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager,Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

While some differences in implementing the post-crisis regulatory reforms have been acknowledged, some jurisdictions show concern that the reforms have gone too far, especially in bank capital regulations, so-called Basel IV reform.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF, 272KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Change in the Shape of the Yield Curve
Yasuhiro Sobue, Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

As shown in the chart below, since the end of July, Japan’s yield curve has significantly “Bear Steepened” (rise in interest rate and steepening of yield curve).
In the background of this is the Monetary Policy Meeting held on July 28th and 29th, in which Bank of Japan announced “Comprehensive Assessment” of economic activity, inflation and the effects of the policy under the “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing”· “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate”.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF, 298KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Deloitte Lectures & Conference】

# CFO Breakfast Roundtable on Brexit (Held on September, 15th & 16th, 2016, Tokyo)
In this ‘CFO Breakfast Roundtable’, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS) joined along with leaders from Deloitte Tohmatsu Group held open discussion with around 30 CFOs of foreign companies based in Japan regarding “Brexit- where it leave you?”. Tsuyoshi Oyama also presented his macroeconomic view on Brexit, economic impacts with both risk and opportunity.

Key Discussion Topics:
-Brexit Effect – Had been too much exaggerated?
-Does Brexit mean “Hard or Soft” Brexit?
-Maysiam vs. Thatcherism
-Next – Frexit or Nexit?

*To review presentation materials


【Outside Lectures & Conference】

# Financial Risk Management Forum 2016 (Will be held on November, 17th, 2016, Tokyo)
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) will lecture regarding “Financial regulations / Risk Appetite Framework”. 


# Hoken (Insurance) Forum (Will be held on November 25th, 2016, Tokyo)
Shigeyuki Goto(Director at CRMS) will speak on “Changes in Risk Structure and Strengthening of Dynamic Insurance ERM” at Hoken(Insurance) Forum 2016, hosted by Seminar Info Co., Ltd. 

 

 

【Article Contribution & Other Activities】

# Nikkei Business Daily (Nikkei Sangyo Shimbun)  (Published on September 8th, 9th, and 13th, 2016) *Japanese Only
Tsuyoshi Oyama’s (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) articles titled “Downward pressures on the macro economy”, “Economic relations, Divided opinions”, and “The Impact on Japan’s economy and companies” were featured in Nikkei Business Daily.


# Kinzai Financial Affairs Weekly (To be published in mid-September)
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) contributed an article titled “Increasing Significance of ‘Dynamic Management’ Corresponding to the ‘Dynamic Financial Supervision’” to Kinzai Financial Affairs Weekly.


# “Enterprise Risk” October Issue (October, 2016, Deloitte Japan)
Tsuyoshi Oyama’s (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) article titled “The effects of US Presidential Election” is featured in Deloitte Japan’s quarterly magazine “Enterprise Risk” October Edition.


# Global Operational Risk Review 2016 / 2017 (October 8th, 2016, Euromoney Yearbook)
Tsuyoshi Oyama’s (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) article titled “Operational risk management challenges facing Japanese banks – Stark differences in operational risk profiles between Japanese and other large banks” is featured in the “Euromoney Global Operational Risk Review2016/17” publication.
This publication will be presented at the Annual Meetings of the IMF & World Bank Group, held in Washington, on October 8th, 2016.

 
# The series of articles : "The impact of Brexit from macroeconomic perspective" (Since July 1st, 2016) *Japanese Only
Center for Risk Management Strategy is contributing on analysis of Brexit impact and key points from the macroeconomic perspective.
The series of articles will be published on Deloitte Japan ‘Brexit’ website.

Contact Center of Risk Management and Strategy

To subscribe to our monthly Global Risk Watch newsletter, please simply complete the form and submit.

Please feel free to contact us regarding our services, interviews, publications, and lecture requests.

Did you find this useful?