Predictions

Narrower Paths for Major Central Banks Now Face the Risk of Being Clogged by Another European Shock

Global Risk Watch Vol.19 October 2016

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# Narrower Paths for Major Central Banks Now Face the Risk of Being Clogged by Another European Shock
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

The global market has seen some turbulence but generally remained stable as the Bank of Japan’s announcement of “new framework” of its monetary easing and the US FRB’s (Federal Reserve Board) decision to delay the rate hike were more or less in line with market expectations.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF, 191KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Consequences of Endless Misconduct by Major Financial Institutions
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager,Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Recently, cases of misconduct by major financial institutions have been widely reported.
Noticeable cases include coverage on the United States Department of Justice considering to charge a total of $140billion fine (later reported that the amount has been reduced) related to Deutsche Bank’s illegal sale of MBS (mortgage-backed security), and, in mid-September, the illegal and excessive sales activity by a US major bank, which was known as the winner of the financial crisis, and is being forced to change managements of the company.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF, 198KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Whether Inflated China Debt is Close to Crisis
Toshikazu Kumagai, Senior Staff, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

In the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) quarterly report, increase of China’s private debt to GDP ratio was pointed out to be excessively high compared to the trend in the past (Chart 1).
BIS likewise issued a warning against Canada, but the excessiveness of the trend is much higher in China compared to Canada.

*Please see the full article*

(PDF, 308KB)

Topics on Overseas Risk

# Emerging Countries Business Risk Series -Cambodia-
Hitoshi Motegi, Director, Risk Advisory at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

The British movie “The Killing Fields”, produced in 1984, which was based on a true story, portrayed the tragedy of genocide under pro-Chinese Communist Party Khmer Rouge regime (KR: Pol Pot faction), and shocked many people around the world (Received three 1985 Academy Awards on Best Supporting Actor, Best Film Editing, and Best Cinematography).

*Please see the full article*

(PDF, 197KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Past Publications】

# “Enterprise Risk” October Issue (October, 2016, Deloitte Japan)
Tsuyoshi Oyama’s (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) article titled “The effects of US Presidential Election” is featured in Deloitte Japan’s quarterly magazine “Enterprise Risk” October Edition. 


# Global Operational Risk Review 2016 / 2017 (October 8th, 2016, Euromoney Yearbook)
Tsuyoshi Oyama’s (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) article titled “Operational risk management challenges facing Japanese banks ? Stark differences in operational risk profiles between Japanese and other large banks” is featured in the “Euromoney Global Operational Risk Review2016/17” publication.
This publication will be presented at the Annual Meetings of the IMF & World Bank Group, held in Washington, on October 8th, 2016.

 

【Web Publications】

# Brexit Effect (UK’s exit from EU) (Since July 1st, 2016) *Japanese Only
Center for Risk Management Strategy is publishing the effects and key points of Brexit on Deloitte Japan’s Special Site for Brexit. 

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