Predictions

Premonition of ‘Inflation’

Global Risk Watch Vol.21 December 2016

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# Premonition of ‘Inflation’
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy(CRMS) at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC/Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader 

The "Trump rally" is still going on in the markets where the US dollar has been further strengthened, stock prices have been further boosted and bond prices have been further down in advanced nations.
Actually, the US stocks have recently renewed its new historical peaks and also Japanese stocks have reached a high for the year in the midst of the plummet of the Yen value against the US dollar.

*Please see the full article*

 

(PDF, 284KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Basel Committee and the Prospect of International Regulation
Yuri Nakano, Senior Manager,Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

The Basel Committee convened on November 28th and 29th in Chile Santiago.
Conflicting issues such as the approach to measure credit risk-weighted assets was discussed at the meeting drawing attention of whether the committee could reach an agreement.

*Please see the full article*

 

(PDF, 295KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Will the Market Goes Back Where it was at the Beginning of This Year?
Toshikazu Kumagai, Senior Staff, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

The Yuan (RMB) against the dollar fell to the lowest level since 2008, and attention has surged again gained regarding capital outflows in China.
It seems that the RMB exchange rate, which continues to fall, at an accelerated pace of the recent decline.
With regard to such movement, weak RMB can expect positive effects on exports, so it can be considered as desirable effect for China as long as it is performed in an orderly transition.

*Please see the full article*

 

(PDF, 429KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Deloitte Lectures & Conference】

# Deloitte Global Financial Services Industry (GFSI) Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Annual Summit in Mumbai (Held on December 5-6th, 2016 : Mumbai, India)
Deloitte risk and capital management and global leaders and risk practitioners gathered in Mumbai this year.

During the course of two days, over 50 Deloitte delegates and 20 clients & regulators joined over the course of two days, which included:

  • An internal meeting entitled “Collaborate for greater impact”, where Deloitte practitioners discussed the 2017 Action Plan for the Risk & Capital Management community. This included a range propositions and client issues such as: IFRS 9, BCBS 239, FRTB and Stress Testing as well as cross-border projects and challenges.
  • A client event entitled “Governance, Risk and Regulation” where Deloitte’s Risk & Capital Management leadership team discussed the regulatory and economic landscape since Brexit and US election. Key note speeches were provided by the Chief General Manager of the Reserve Bank of India and the Head of Credit and Market Risk of Barclays India.


【Outside Lectures & Conference】

# Thomson Reuters Conference “4th Annual Japanese Regulatory Summit” (Will be Held on March 7th, 2016 : Tokyo)
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC is once again pleased to join as a key partner of Thomson Reuters the ‘4th Annual Japanese Regulatory Summit’, running on 7 March 2017 at Grand Hyatt Hotel, Tokyo.
The summit is the key platform for C-level executives, senior compliance and risk professionals, and regulators to discuss the critical issues and nascent opportunities that the ever changing regulatory landscape presents to Japan.
Through a series of keynote presentations, panel discussions, and one on one interviews, leading experts will give attendees an unparalleled insight into how to combat tomorrow's key compliance, risk and regulatory challenges. 

 

【Article Contribution & Other Activities】

# “Enterprise Risk” January Issue : Special Edition “2017 Risk Scenario Forecast” (January, 2017, Deloitte Japan) *Japanese Only
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) and Yuji Okumura (Head of Deloitte Tohmatsu Enterprise Risk Research Laboratory) discussed concerns and impacts in the light of Trump presidency.
This edition includes discussion on the risk scenario of the US Presidential election outcome and the effects on Japanese economy and companies.


# Brexit Effect (UK’s exit from EU) (Since July 1st, 2016) *Japanese Only

Center for Risk Management Strategy is publishing the effects and key points of Brexit on Deloitte Japan’s special site for Brexit.

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