Predictions

Challenges Facing Post-deflation Monetary Policies

Global Risk Watch Vol.23 February 2017

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# Challenges Facing Post-deflation Monetary Policies
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy(CRMS) at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC/Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader 

The expansionary fiscal policy being proposed by the new Trump administration is about to change a major trend that has dominated the global economy to date.
In the face of deflation, many of the advanced economies have been dependent on “ultra” loose monetary policies.
They are “ultra” because, within the lower limit of 0% policy rates, many countries introduced unconventional measures such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates.

*Please download the full article

 

(PDF, 196KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# The U.S. Presidential Executive Order and Global Financial Regulation
Yuri Nakano, Senior Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

On February 3rd, President Trump has signed an executive order to review the existing financial regulations.
The order proposes seven core principles to comply with in order for regulating the American financial system.
Further, he has requested the Treasury Secretary to submit a report to review and identify existent restrictions that conflict with implementation of proposed regulation based on the seven principles.

*Please download the full article

 

(PDF, 297KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Reconsideration of Primary Balance Surplus Target
Toshikazu Kumagai, Senior Staff, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

At the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, the Japanese government released the “Mid- to long-term estimation for economy and fiscal situations.”
This document represents the government's estimation of Japanese GDP and financial conditions based on assumptions.
In this, trends in the primary balance (PB) of the central and local governments draw particular interests.

*Please download the full article

 

(PDF, 437KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Outside Lectures & Conference】

# (Repost) Thomson Reuters Conference “4th Annual Japanese Regulatory Summit” (Will be Held on March 7th, 2017 : Tokyo)
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC is once again pleased to join as a key partner of Thomson Reuters the ‘4th Annual Japanese Regulatory Summit’, running on 7th March 2017 at Grand Hyatt Hotel, Tokyo.
The summit is the key platform for C-level executives, senior compliance and risk professionals, and regulators to discuss the critical issues and nascent opportunities that the ever changing regulatory landscape presents to Japan.

Through a series of keynote presentations, panel discussions, and one on one interviews, leading experts will give attendees an unparalleled insight into how to combat tomorrow's key compliance, risk and regulatory challenges.
A paper by Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader), “2017 Global Risk Outlook - Will Trump Presidency bring an inflation or deflation?” is available as part of the pre-event white paper, “Japanese Regulatory Environment” on the Thomson Reuters platform.

 

【Past Lectures】

# “The 4th Seminar for Deloitte Tohmatsu Executives Network - Special Lecture by the first President of the European Council, and Panel Discussions on the 2017 Global Economic Outlook.” (Held on January 17th, 2017 at the Peninsula Tokyo)
Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides insight, through seminars and other means, on corporate governance as well as external factors such as international affairs that affect corporate governance. We have sponsored and welcomed a great number of guests at this seminar.
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) spoke as a panelist at the discussion, “What’s next? - The impact of Brexit and international trade issues on Japanese corporations and their countermeasures.”

>Please find the seminar report here *Only available in Japanese

 

【Article Contribution & Other Activities】

# “Weekly Economist” (Japanese edition / February 7th, 2017 issue)
Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) contributed to the magazine with an article, “Postponed Basel III agreement - ‘Gentleman’s agreement’ challenged with German opposition.”

# Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Monthly Magazine “Accounting Information” (March 2017 issue)
Tsuyoshi Oyama contributed to the magazine with an article, “2017 Global Economy Outlook.” *Only available in Japanese

# Deloitte CFO Signals Japan: 2016Q4 *Only available in Japanese
Deloitte CFO Signal is a survey conducted at the global level.
Twenty-eight Deloitte Member Firm CFO Surveys, covering more than 60 countries, are conducted by Deloitte member firms on a quarterly, biannual, or annual basis.
The objective of these surveys is to collect CFOs’ opinions on a range of areas, including economic outlook, financial markets, business trends, their organizations, and CFO careers.
The focus and timing of each member firm’s survey varies.
Center for Risk Management Strategy provides economic analysis in the Japanese edition.

# Brexit Effect (UK’s exit from EU) (Since July 1st, 2016) *Only available in Japanese
Center for Risk Management Strategy is publishing the effects and key points of Brexit on Deloitte Japan’s special site for Brexit.

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