Predictions

Would the normalized Trump regime be able to hold back rewinding of the Trump rally?

Global Risk Watch Vol.25 April 2017

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

# Would the normalized Trump regime be able to hold back rewinding of the Trump rally?
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy(CRMS) at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC/Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader 

After witnessing the strong momentum that has consecutively renewed record highs, the U.S. stock market has finally come to a standstill.
This is mainly due to the revoked submission of the Obamacare alternative bill, which signalled a clear red card for the Trump regime whose capability in policy execution has already been questioned.

*Please download the full article

 

(PDF, 194KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

# Restoring the Glass-Steagall Act
Yuri Nakano, Senior Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Based on the executive order in February to review the existing financial regulations, a report to identify regulations that prevent fostering of economic growth and vibrant financial market will be submitted to the president in early June.
However, actions on regulatory reforms are being taken ahead of the submission of this report.

*Please download the full article

 

(PDF, 189KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

# Is the U.S. personal consumption headed to a deceleration trend?
Toshikazu Kumagai, Senior Staff, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

While the divergence between soft and hard data in the U.S. economy draws attention, the views on its prospect also vary.
Regarding the 2017 January-March period GDP growth prospect, the New York Fed’s Nowcast predicts it to be around 3%, while the Atlanta Fed says below 1%.

*Please download the full article

 

(PDF, 583KB)

Seminars, Conference & Publication

【Outside Lectures & Conference】

# Risk Japan 2017, hosted by Asia Risk (June 6th, 2017 @Shangri-La Hotel Tokyo)
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC is participating the 10th Annual Risk Japan as a principal sponsor.
At this conference, a wide variety of topics will be discussed, including latest trends in international regulation, their influence on the Japanese financial industry, strategies to reduce market fluctuation risk, practical methods to improve capital efficiency, and revolutionary solutions for diverse risk management.

After the annual conference, Asia Risk will also host a two-day workshop, “FRTB: Fundamental Review of the Trading Book.”
The workshop will bring together a variety of industry experts and practitioners to discuss topics including the revised internal model and standardised approaches, the P&L attribution test, modellable and non-modellable risk factors, capital requirements, and data management.

【Article Contribution & Other Activities】

# Hokenmainichi Shimbun Co. Ltd. “Insurance ERM Basics” (published on April 7th, 2017)
Shigeyuki Goto (Director, CRMS) has published “Insurance ERM Basics” from Hokenmainichi Shimbun Co. Ltd.

>For details, please click here. *Only available in Japanese
 

# Deloitte CFO Signals Japan: 2016Q4 *Only available in Japanese
Deloitte has conducted the 6th regular survey on CFOs in Japan.
This survey investigated CFOs’ awareness on micro- and macro-economic environment as well as the impact of robotic process automation and artificial intelligence on corporate operations (survey period: January 10th to 20th).
CRMS has contributed to the examination part of the survey.
 

# ”Brexit Impact from a Macroeconomic Perspective ” available online (from July 1st, 2016) *Only available in Japanese
CRMS provides timely information on the impact and key aspects of Brexit from a macroeconomic perspective on the special website of the Deloitte Tohmatsu Group.

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