Predictions

Has the prospect of ‘Secular Stagnation’ receded? 

Global Risk Watch Vol.3 June 2015

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

◆Has the prospect of ‘Secular Stagnation’ receded? 
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC.

In the last month’ volume, we have pointed out the synchronization of bond and equity markets, both of which have been overheated thanks to two market prerequisites that (1) single resilient US economy would lead the world economy, and: (2) Quantitative easing (QE) due to long-standing disinflation in EU and Japan would continue for a while – a wobble in both prerequisites resulted signs of fluctuations in both asset markets.

Trends and the characteristics of the recent one month downloaded from the left

(PDF,239KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

◆Again, Critical Regulatory Reforms for the Management of Japanese Bank 
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC. 

In this month, numerous important developments occurred for Japanese banks. The biggest focal point is the consultation paper published by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) regarding ‘Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB)’. This consultation proposes two options (Pillar 1 and Pillar 2) for the capital treatment of interest rate risk in the banking book. The most fearful scenario for Japanese banks (Pillar 1 proposal only) was avoided; however, banks cannot be complacent by this. There is likelihood that Pillar 1 will be selected as mandatory requirements depending on various developments in the near future. In addition, the proposed Pillar 2 option includes quantitative disclosure of interest rate risk in the banking book based upon the Pillar 1 approach as well as contents to strengthen so-called ‘Outlier regulations’. Therefore, a variety of burdens might be added on certain banks (banks operating internationally) in comparison with the current scheme. 

Downloaded from the other three regulatory trends the left fileld

(PDF,158KB)

Seminars & Outside lectures

◆ Basel Regulations / Overview of Consultation Paper on  ‘Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB)’ (July 1st, 2015)

On June 8th , the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published consultation paper on‘Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB)’, which propose a significant changes of its framework. Interest rate risk in the banking book has become a core risk along with credit risk for the Japanese financial institutions. The impacts are imminent should the banks become subject to capital adequacy requirements. Taro Asai (Senior Manager) and Naoya Iino (Manager) will explain the key changes. 

Date & Time: Thursday, July 1st between 14:00 – 15:15
Location: Deloitte Touche  Tohmatsu LLC, Yurakucho Office, Seminar Room
Limited Seat: Maximum 80 
Entrance Fee: Free

>>Detail Information(Japanese)

◆  CFO Breakfast Roundtable (held on June 19th, 2015)

On June 19th, Tsuyoshi Oyama, Head of CRMS joined as the speaker for the Breakfast Roundtable (Theme ‘What’s your risk appetite’) host by Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting LLC. This event welcomed CFOs of major foreign companies in Japan.

‘When business strategy and risk management meet – Use of Risk Appetite Framework and Risk Intelligence’ (Tsuyoshi Oyama, Head of CRMS,)

*For presentation materials, please download it from the left*

(PDF,999KB)

◆‘Risk Japan 2015’ (held on June 11th, 2015)

Risk Japan 2015 conference, hosted by Asia Risk held on June 11th. This 8th annual event had extremely successful turnout, and exceeded our prior expectations. We were honored to welcome a flow of over 500 risk industry leaders as the principal sponsor of this conference.

At this conference, wide varieties of topics on risk management for financial institutions were presented and active discussion led by professionals from supervisory authorities, financial institutions, and consulting firms. Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS), Taro Asai (Senior Manager) presented during the conference. Shigeyuki Goto (Director) as a panelist and Koichi Iwai (Senior Manager) as a moderator have also participated in the event. 

‘Effective conduct risk management in line with risk appetite’ (Tsuyoshi Oyama, Head of CRMS)

*For presentation materials, please download it from the left (Japanese)*

(PDF,3.0MB)

‘Basel II is back: impacts of the BCBS proposal of revised standardised approach for measuring credit, operational and counterparty credit risk exposures’ (Taro Asai, Senior Manager)

*For presentation materials, please download it from the left (Japanese)*

(PDF,2.6MB)

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