Predictions

Chinese Economy – Becoming Uncontrollable?

Global Risk Watch Vol.5 August 2015

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

◆Chinese Economy – Becoming Uncontrollable? 
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

While the turmoil looming over the situation in Greece has momentarily subsided with the decision of additional financial assistance by the European Union, conversely, “China shock” has increasingly weighed on the global economy, with market participants everyday fretting over ‘how far has the Chinese economic growth actually decelerated, or ‘how big is its rippling effect on emerging economies, particularly in Asia?’

Please download from the left to view the details that the backdrops for serious concerns of a slowdown in Chinese Economy

(PDF,351KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

◆Risk Appetite Framework is re-emphasized
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has successively published two important documents regarding Risk Appetite Framework (RAF). The first is the revised guidance on ‘Corporate Governance principles for Banks’, which literally shows the principles (criteria) to be satisfied by the corporate governance of banks. This revised guidance is set to replace the one published by BCBS in 2010.

By comparing the revised guidance with the 2010 version, the characteristic differences in details please download from the left

(PDF,267KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

◆Creeping Deflationary Risk in Chinese Economy
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

In the past month, the slowdown of Chinese economy gained global attention. In every country, real GDP growth rate is most commonly used as the barometer of the macro economy. Chinese real GDP growth during 2Q 2015 recorded the same growth rate as the previous quarter (Q1) at 7.0% yoy and remained resilient at a glance. However, a hidden risk in the Chinese economy can be seen when compared with nominal growth figures. 

Please download from the left to view the graph and commentary

(PDF,268KB)

Overseas Risk Related Topics

◆Increasing Global Population and its impacts 
Hitoshi Motegi, Director at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

The United Nations published “World Population Prospects 2015 Revision” last month (July 2015). The world population is currently at 7.3 billion 4,947 million people as of 2015, and is expected to reach 11.2 billion 1,332 million people by 2100.

The influence of the regional population ratios and population growth, please download from the left

(PDF,276KB)

Seminars

◆ Deloitte Tohmatsu Seminar ‘The Future of Financial Assets Business Strategies in Japan’ (September 10th, 2015)

In this seminar, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS) will discuss regarding ‘ The future of regulatory trends- the concept of the past, and the future trends’

>>Detail Information(Japanese)

Outside lectures

◆ London School of Economics Conference (supported by Mizuho) ‘The Forefront of Financial Research and the Challenges on the future of the financial economy’ (September 8th, 2015)

In this conference, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS) will discuss regarding ‘ Financial stability and systemic risk’.

◆Institute of International Finance Conference ‘Managing Capital and Liquidity Risks’(October 28th, 2015)

IIF will host this year’s conference in collaboration with Deloitte Tohmatsu. Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS) is one of main speaker in the ‘Risk Framework and Emerging Stress Testing Practices’ session.

*Please contact us if you are interested to attend this event.

>>Detail Information

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