Predictions

Deja vu? An Increasing Dovish Stance of Monetary Policy in Advanced Economies

Global Risk Watch Vol.7 October 2015

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

◆Deja vu? An Increasing Dovish Stance of Monetary Policy in Advanced Economies 
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Although the postponement of an interest rate hike in the US has brought us a brief moment of relief, Chinese and mostly resource-rich emerging countries’ economies seems to be entering into the ‘second stage’ of economic adjustment after decelerating economic growth. This stage is represented by mounting downward pressures arising from capital stock and employment adjustments.

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(PDF,265KB)

Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

◆A Sign of Globalization of the American Way of Fund Regulation
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Fund regulatory reforms have been making steady progress in the US. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has published (on December, 2014) policy reforms to address systemic risks and other highlighting issues in the asset management industry;
(1) improve  reporting and disclosure regime;
(2) enhance liquidity risk management;
(3) limit fund’s use of derivative and leverage;
(4) revise transition procedure of client assets;
(5) stress testing by large investment advisers and large funds.
Furthermore, regulation on (1) was proposed on May, 2015, and regulation on (2) was subsequently proposed in September, while the rest of reforms are also working in progress.

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(PDF,266KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

◆Signs of Economic Deceleration in the US
Yasuhiro Sobue, Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

US economy in 2Q grew by 3.9% qoq  (exhibition below is a flash figure at 2.3% growth, however, the final figures were revised up) and showed a resilient recovery from 1Q figures, which were impacted by bad winter weather and etc.

Please download from the left to view the graph and commentary

(PDF,266KB)

Opinions

◆‘The emerging style of bank supervision indicated by the FSB paper and how Japan should adapt itself to this new normal / Articulation of risk appetite demanded for supervisors themselves’(Published by Kinzai Institute for Financial AFFIRS, Inc. on September 14th, 2015, Japanese only)

In this publication, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS) illustrates viewpoints of supervisory authorities of major countries before and after the global financial crisis, partly based on the “Thematic Review on Supervisory Frameworks and Approaches for SIBs” published by FSB in May. In addition, he illustrates the comparisons of risk appetite among Japanese and EU/US supervisors.

Seminars

◆ Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC Seminar ‘Overview of corporate governance principles for banks’ (October 16th, 2015)

In this seminar, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS) discussed ‘ Risk Appetite Framework implementation practice’ 

Outside lectures

◆Lecture at Seminar- Info Seminar (November 16th, 2015)

Koichi Iwai (Senior Manager at CRMS) will lecture in the seminar regarding ‘Case studies on building and operating Risk Appetite Framework in financial institutions’

>>Detail Information (Japanese)

 

◆Lecture at Seminar- Info Seminar ‘Insurance Forum’ (November 26th, 2015)

Shigeyuki Goto (Director at CRMS) will discuss regarding ‘Insurance ERM related regulatory developments and challenges faced by insurance companies’

>>Detail Information (Japanese)

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