Predictions

The World Economy is Frightened by The Policy Brake Which Might Further Harden Its Uphill Climbing

Global Risk Watch Vol.9 December 2015

Risk intelligence e-Newsletter provides an overview of various corporate management risks from a global perspective featuring key events that occurred over the past month and need to be carefully examined for risk management purposes. The Center for Risk Management Strategy (CRMS) as part of the global Deloitte Tohmatsu Group provides you with experienced analysis on risk management and financial regulation.

Overview Macroeconomic and Financial Risks

◆The World Economy is Frightened by The Policy Brake Which Might Further Harden Its Uphill Climbing
Tsuyoshi Oyama, Partner/Head of Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC
*This article is written on 15 December 2015.

FRB’s interest rate hike has finally entered the countdown phase, and the focus has now shifted to the pace in rate hikes during 2016. Meanwhile, the global financial markets saw volatilities rise once again from a temporary lull.

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Overview of Development in Financial Regulations

◆Loosening Banking Regulations, and Strengthening of Non-bank Regulations?
Koichi Iwai, Senior Manager,Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC

Looking back on the regulatory reforms since the Global Financial Crisis, one was Basel III, a movement to strengthening banking regulations led by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS); another movement was strengthening regulatory oversight of non-banks led by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), and International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO). The latter includes the designation of Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) for non-banks, and OTC derivatives regulations among others.

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(PDF,271KB)

Highlight of Indicator for this Month

◆ Are Rise of the US high-yield bond yields, an Indicative Warning for the Stock Market?
Yasuhiro Sobue, Manager, Center for Risk Management Strategy at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu LLC 

US high-yield bond yields are rising (price is falling), and the main reasons for rising yields are that a US rate hike is imminent, and crude oil prices plummeted to a record low-level in August 2015.

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(PDF,269KB)

Deloitte Sponsored Seminars

◆ Deloitte Conference ‘GFSI Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leaders Meeting in Bangkok’ (November 17th & 18th, 2015)

Deloitte welcomed leading banks and corporations executives (CFOs, CROs) to join Deloitte Risk Capital Management Leaders from 11 regions (Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand plus US and UK) to discuss global regulations and its impacts on Asia, particularly the South East Asia region.
Various active discussions on the way to further enhance our collaboration so as to cultivate more business opportunities in the region.
In addition, Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) and Somkrit Krishnamra (Head of Deloitte Thailand ERS) discussed current imbalances in Thai financial services industry with local newspaper Bangkok Post , and also quoted in various local media.
 

◆ Deloitte Conference ‘Macroeconomic Risk Intelligence Analysis Seminar in Singapore’ (November 25th, 2015)

Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS, Deloitte Asia Pacific Risk and Capital Management Leader) discussed various stress scenarios with Japanese companies in Singapore,  and illustrated guidance to confront  their vague fear of future events such as ‘Will the Chinese economy continue to slowdown?’, ‘ When will the US FRB raise the interest rate?’, ‘What are the impacts on South East Asia economies?’. 

Outside lectures

◆ Lecture at Foreign Non-Life Insurance Association of Japan Conference (January 13rd, 2016)

Shigeyuki Goto (Director at CRMS) will lecture regarding ‘Regulatory trends and measures on Insurance ERM’ in this conference.


◆ KIER Economic Research Foundation Sponsored Symposium ‘Stress Testing –Current Status and Issues’ (January 23rd, 2016)

Yasuhiro Sobue (Manager at CRMS) will join this symposium as the lecturer.

>>Detail Information (Japanese) 

Seminar Reports

◆ Deloitte Roundtable Discussion ‘CFO Breakfast Roundtable on Macro-economy and Local and Global Risk Concerns’ (December 10th & 11th, 2015) 

Tsuyoshi Oyama (Head of CRMS) held roundtable discussion with over 30 foreign CFOs in Japan in the course of two days, discussed macroeconomic trends in China, US, and Japan, and anticipated stress scenarios in the upcoming future.

*Presentation Materials (English,PDF)*

 

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