Global Economic Outlook Q1 2016: Now available
In the first-quarter edition of Global Economic Outlook, our far-flung economists examine the global economic environment and offer their thoughts on the current situation and the likely future path.
First off, Alexander Boersch examines the Eurozone economy. Alex reports that, despite headwinds from emerging-market weakness and geopolitical tensions, the European economy has lately benefitted from strong tailwinds.
Next, Patricia Buckley offers her thoughts on the US economy. She notes that the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade reflects growing confidence in the strength of the US economy.
China is the subject of Ira Kalish's contribution to the quarterly outlook, where he points to evidence that the slowdown in China’s growth has been getting worse. However, he notes that, given the level of policy interest rates, the central bank actually has plenty of room to act in order to stimulate more growth.
Next, Rumki Majumdar writes about the Indian economy. Rumki notes the relative strength of India’s economy, with fast growth and modest inflation. She says that consumer spending has led growth, but that it cannot be sustained going forward absent more investment and employment growth.
In his article on Japan, Akrur Barua points to new data indicating that Japan did not experience a recession in 2015 after all. Yet he notes that consumer spending and business investment are “far from impressive.”
In the next article, Ian Stewart notes the resilience of the domestic side of the British economy. He discusses all of the various headwinds that Britain’s export sector faces and concludes that domestic demand will be key going forward.
In the last article, Rumki Majumdar looks at how emerging markets are likely to be affected by the change in US monetary policy. She examines the past experience of emerging-market responses to shifts in advanced-market financial conditions in order to infer what might happen next.
The Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2016 may be downloaded from http://www2.deloitte.com/mt/geo.
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