Powering the Future of Mobility

Opinie

Powering the Future of Mobility

The role of the electric power sector in the new transportation ecosystem in the Netherlands

The ambitions of the new Dutch government are the greenest ever, according to the coalition agreement. Our sustainability goals are higher than agreed across the EU, aiming for 49% CO2 reduction in 2030. One of the measures of the new governmental agreement is that all new cars have to be zero-emission cars by 2030. This implies a tremendous rise in the number of electric vehicles (EV) –in both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV, also known as hydrogen vehicles). How ready are we?

By Dieuwertje Ewalts - 4 December 2017

A present driven by incentives

Even though the Netherlands ranks second worldwide in sales of EVs as a part of total car sales (a 6.4%1 share), annual sales are nowhere near 100% zero-emission cars. In general, sales of EVs are driven by government incentives. This became especially clear when a cut in tax benefits for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) was announced for 2016, causing a surge in PHEV sales end of 2015. The Netherlands experienced an all-time high of an almost 10% EV share in new cars, with over 9% from PHEVs. However, the peak in sales did not last and both in 2016 and 2017 PHEVs sales dropped. On the other hand, the share of BEVs is increasing steadily, but it is still below 2% of total car sales.

Figure 1. Share of EV car sales in The Netherlands
Source: EAFO (European Alternative Fuel Observatory)

Leading us in terms of EV sales is Norway, securing its first place by an impressive share of EV sales of over 29%2. Norwegian zero-emission incentives3 have been increasing in the past years, and have definitely added to the sales of BEVs. To name a few: tax reductions on both ownership and purchase, toll exemptions, free parking and sometimes even free charging. In addition, Norway is committed to building a fast charging network on the main roads, with public funding to enable this.

Powering the electric future of mobility

Deloitte has conducted a global study entitled ‘Powering the Future of Mobility’, which evaluates the transition towards electric vehicles in various countries, examining in particular the role of power utility companies.

In the Netherlands, we are well positioned to significantly increase the number of zero-emission vehicles. We are a dense country with an expanding charging infrastructure, with companies tumbling over each other to build more charging stations both in municipalities and across the highway. In 2016 and 2017, more than 10.000 public charging stations were built, which adds up to almost 30,000 stations per June 2017 in total. This allows for around four EVs per public charging station. Including all private charging stations, currently estimated at around 75.000, this comes down to less than 1.5 EVs per station.

Powering the Future of Mobility
Figure 2: Development (semi-)public charging stations in the Netherlands (2011 - June 2017)4
Source: Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland

Not all charging companies have their roots in the automotive or the energy sectors. For instance, EVBox and Fastned were both start-ups and now are market leaders in the Netherlands for respectively regular charging stations (EVBox with over 10.0005 public charging stations) and fast chargers (FastNed with with over 200 charging stations). The traditional power companies are also building charging stations, but only NUON and Allegro (with more than 3.000 and 2.000 stations respectively) have a significant share in the Netherlands. In addition, EVnet is a cooperation of power production companies and power network companies with around 4% market share.

The road ahead

The current charging infrastructure seems to be more than sufficient for current and near future needs, as the demand is expected to grow significantly to meet CO2 emission ambitions. Recent M&A activities, with oil and power companies actively acquiring successful charging start-ups, reflect this. ENGIE, for instance, purchased EV-box8, and Shell acquired New Motion9 whilst Total Group took over PitPoint10, a company focusing on a broad array of ‘clean fuel’ (CNG, LNG, electricity and even hydrogen).

Figure 3: Market share public charging stations6,7 (November 2017)
Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Laadpalen.nl

On the global playing field, the Netherlands is well positioned to stay a leading architect in the future of mobility. That said, the Norwegian example shows there is much left to be achieved – and given the ambitions of the Dutch government, we should indeed expect more to come.

Sources

1 Special: Analyse over 2016, Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland, January 2017
2 Norwegian EV Market, Norwegian EV Association
3 Norway, European Alternative Fuels Association (EAFO)
4 Cijferoverzicht Elektrisch Vervoer in Nederland (tm juni 2017), Rijksdienst voor Ondernemend Nederland
5 Oplaadpalen.nl, November 2017. Multiple chargers at the same locations are counted separately.
6 Deloitte analysis based on data from Oplaadpalen.nl, November 2017
7 Meer dan de helft van publieke laadpalen van pionier EVnetNL gaat over naar gemeenten, EVnetNL, March 2017. In March 2017, over 50% of the EVnet charging stations were handed over to the municipality in which the station was located, reducing the share of EVnet to 4%.
8 Press statement, ENGIE, March 2017
9 Press statement, New Motion, October 2017
10 Press statement, PitPoint, May 2017

More information?

For more information about innovations in the energy industry, contact Dieuwertje Ewalts. For the automotive industry please contact Slavko Savanovic via the details below.

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