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TV and video: How to prepare for the future
4 future scenarios that will help you navigate the changes in the industry
Imagine it’s 2030. What will the TV and video industry be like by then? Who will be the major players? What does this mean for Dutch companies in terms of strategy – what should they prepare for and how can they impact the future of their own industry?
Highly dynamic industry
Like many other industries in these times of rapid change and disruption, the TV and video market is highly dynamic. This is due to a number of factors, from capricious consumer expectations and usage habits to digitalization and new market offers. The entire industry is undergoing fundamental change, with streaming providers that create their own content next to existing films and TV programs. And on the other end of the spectrum, broadcasters and media companies are launching their own on-demand offerings while global content producers are creating their own streaming services. If the market landscape is already changing so swiftly now, what will it look like in 12 years from now – on a global scale as well as in The Netherlands?
A glance at the future
Naturally, it is hard to make long-term predictions about the industry. Yet as Deloitte, we feel we should offer you a glance at the future in order to help you prepare. We have done so before for the broader telecommunications market as well. That is why we developed a set of 4 scenarios, based on a scientific scenario approach. We derived a comprehensive set of underlying drivers from expert interviews all around the world, as well as from an external environment analysis based on Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms. We then evaluated these drivers in a matrix in relation to their degree of certainty and their individual effects on the industry. This is how we came up with 6 predictions that we are certain about.
Predictions that we are certain about
- Digitalization will change content, production, distribution, and recommendation functionalities (based on e.g. Artificial Intelligence and analytics).
- Traditional TV and non-linear content offerings will coexist. Live content such as sports and major events will preserve the importance of traditional, linear television.
- Advertising becomes targeted – although this still depends on regulation and consumers’ willingness to share their data.
- There will be moderate market regulation overall compared to the highly regulated media today.
- Advertising and direct revenues will remain most relevant. Generating new revenue streams is difficult.
- New and existing players wil reposition along the value chain in a partly consolidated market. For instance, over-the-top services become more important whereas tech players play a minor role in the future industry.
4 future scenarios
As a result of our analysis, we developed the following 4 future scenarios for the industry.
- Scenario 1: Universal Supermarket. In this scenario, a few global digital platform companies have taken over the leading role in aggregation and distribution from national broadcasters. In the Netherlands, that would mean a situation similar to the music industry, where Spotify and Apple Music have cut out Dutch players.
- Scenario 2: Content Endgame. Large global content owners are the winners of the market transition, having integrated vertically along the entire value chain. For Dutch content companies that might mean market loss, considering the impact of large international players. Although national news, sports, and films will probably remain Dutch.
- Scenario 3: Revenge of the Broadcasters. National broadcasters have successfully accomplished their digital transformation and secured a strong position in the TV and video ecosystem. This would mean that companies like RTL and SBS will gain position.
- Scenario 4: Lost in diversity. The industry has evolved into a diverse ecosystem without any dominant players. This scenario is just as plausible as the other three.
Future scenarios in videos
Click your way through the various scenarios and see what the future of TV and video might look like in detail:
- Scenario 1>> Click here to watch the video
- Scenario 2>> Click here to watch the video
- Scenario 3>> Click here to watch the video
- Scenario 4>> Click here to watch the video
What would be a world in which some global digital platform companies have replaced national broadcasters? Take a look at a possible future scenario for the TV and video industry.
What would happen if global content producers dominated the market in the future? Experience with us a possible future scenario of the TV and video landscape in 2030.
Revenge of the Broadcasters
In this possible future scenario, national broadcasters have successfully mastered the digital transformation and secured a strong position in the TV and video ecosystem.
Lost in diversity
Follow us into a future in which the TV and video market has developed into a diverse ecosystem in which there are no dominant players and market participants are constantly changing.
How to prepare
Since all scenarios could become reality, it is pivotal to be prepared for all of them. This study can be very helpful. First of all, as a current player, you could compare your strategy to all 4 scenarios. Some scenarios will be compatible, others will not. That means you must always keep an eye on how the market is evolving towards one of the scenarios in order to be able to adapt your strategy in time.
Second, your company does not fully depend on external circumstances – it is also an actor that can impact its surroundings. E.g. by being open-minded towards collaboration and alliances, joint production, joint distribution models, and even joint platforms. By investing in digital competence and being attractive to digital talents and creative minds. And also by keeping in touch with regulators, politicians and other crucial parties. In this way, you may be able to influence the future towards the scenario-outcome that would be more favourable for you. For more background information, please download our study or contact us.