Deloitte 2023 Financial Services Industry Predictions

The Deloitte “2023 Financial Services Industry Predictions” report outlines emerging trends across the banking & capital markets, insurance, real estate, and investment management sectors, and highlights the impact of data and emerging technologies, products and services, and climate change on the future of financial services – and as a result, on society and the economy.

“The reality is that emerging technological changes could be more pervasive and impactful going forward in ways that can be scarcely imagined today,” said Jim Eckenrode, managing director, Deloitte Center for Financial Services. Deloitte Services LP. “Financial services will likely play an important role in helping these breakthroughs emerge to the benefit of us all, while simultaneously opening up new avenues of revenue and profit.”

Some of Deloitte’s predictions for the financial services industry over the next decade:

Generative AI is expected to boost productivity: Generative AI is expected to have a significant impact on the investment banking industry and the financial services industry as a whole, as organizations explore ways to harness the power of the technology to improve productivity. Deloitte predicts the top 14 global investment banks could boost their front-office productivity by an average of 25% by using Generative AI (GAI), thereby earning potentially an additional revenue of $3 million per front-office employee in 2026, from an average of $11.3 million during 2020-22.

Demand for carbon credit offset financing: Deloitte predicts that global consumers will purchase $115 billion of carbon offsets a year by 2030. Carbon credits will likely be embedded in many of the purchasing decisions that consumers make in their day-to-day lives. The surge in demand for these credits could produce new trading networks that offer tailored, localized and niche options for climate change mitigation projects. Banks could be instrumental in developing and supporting the back-end infrastructure that connect brands’ payment processes to the carbon credit market. And banks can play an instrumental role in developing and supporting the carbon credit market.

Insurers prepare for driverless vehicles: Deloitte estimates advancements in self-driving technology may eliminate the need for around 380,000 long-haul truck drivers in the next five years. This alone would have a major impact on workers’ compensation insurers, with a potential loss of around $3 billion worth of premiums. But widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles could also result in a shift in premiums across multiple insurance lines, including commercial auto, product and professional liability, and cyber coverage.

Office space to fill the affordable housing gap: Deloitte predicts office-to-residential conversions could become profitable within the next five years, estimating that around 14,700 affordable units in central business districts across the country can be added by 2030, assuming approximately 20% of converted square footage can be earmarked for affordable housing.

“As financial services firms grapple with what’s on the horizon, they need to think about how the landscape is radically shifting,” said Monica O’Reilly, Vice Chair, US Financial Services Industry Leader, Deloitte & Touche LLP. “Market and economic pressures, emerging technologies, and new revenue opportunities will impact tomorrow’s business strategies, and financial services firms should prepare for that now.”

Additional trends included in the report that are expected to shape the financial services industry:

Democratization of financial advice: Financial advice shouldn’t just be for the wealthy anymore — and it doesn’t have to be. Financial firms can leverage robo-advisory platforms to bring much-needed financial advice to the global mass market and make it profitable. Deloitte estimates net financial wealth held by the mass retail population segment globally to almost double to $22 trillion by 2030.

Synthetic identity fraud could trigger need for more sophisticated biometric security systems: Synthetic identity fraud—a hoax in which cybercriminals create new identities with some stolen or fabricated data — is the fastest growing financial crime in the United States,i and it shows no sign of abating. Deloitte expects it to generate at least $25 billion in losses by 2030, prompting banks to develop more advanced biometric security systems to weed out would-be perpetrators.

Higher deposit costs expected to challenge banks: Deloitte predicts the average cost of interest-bearing deposits for the U.S. banking industry in 2024 and 2025 to remain elevated at 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, even as the fed funds rate declines from the recent peak. This may crimp bank profitability in the medium term.

Real-time B2B payments could take off: Deloitte expects real-time payments could tap an addressable market of $12 trillion in check-based business-to-business (B2B) transaction volume globally by 2028. Banks and payment firms could play a pivotal role in helping usher in a new era of more efficient and instant domestic and cross-border value exchange among businesses.

Rise of embedded insurance: Embedded finance, and particularly embedded insurance, is expected to continue to expand. Execution may not be easy for insurers, though, and it could take the rest of the decade for embedded finance to fully shake out.

Increased spending on quantum computing: Spending on quantum-related capabilities will likely grow quickly over the next few years as indicated by the increased capital investments and patent filings for the hardware technology. Globally, the financial services industry’s spending on quantum computing capabilities is expected to grow 233x from just US$80 million in 2022 to US$19 billion in 2032, growing at a 10-year CAGR of 72%.

Alternative data in investment management: Deloitte estimates the revenue for alternative data providers, earned from all industries globally with the majority coming from investment management firms, to grow 29x between 2022 and 2030. The new data largely consist of novel types and forms of data such as satellite images, social media posts, geolocation data, credit card transactions, and mobile application data that are starkly different from the traditionally structured financial data.

Funding for climate hardtech: An additional US$2 trillion in private hardtech investment is predicted to be needed to help effectively slow global warming. Most of total climate funding will likely need to come from the private sector — but so far, there isn’t enough. Financial services organizations can play a lead role in bridging the funding gap.