Vision 2040

Global scenarios for the oil and gas industry

The Vision 2040 – Global scenarios for the oil and gas industry study uses a time-honored Monitor Deloitte scenario preparation methodology to forecast a panorama of directions the sector may take in the next decades. Our expert consultants in this segment have analyzed the current context of the industry and the main factors that influence it, surveying the main trends that should most strongly direct the movement of the sector and also considering the various uncertainties that may impact the market.

In developing the scenarios, all the experience of our staff for strategy and the oil and gas industry was employed, composing scenarios that take economic information, geopolitical issues, demographic and social data and specific oil and gas industry factors into consideration.

Our methodology consists, primarily, of listing the main trends and, subsequently, collecting the critical uncertainties, which are the factors with the highest level of unpredictability. By crossing trends with uncertainties, scenarios – plausible narratives – for the time period in question are created. Finally, we present a most probable vision from our point of view, called the “target-scenario,” which is detailed and quantified. We also include analyses of the Brazilian industry reality in the scenarios, with the appropriate contextualization, helping local competitors to understand the consequences of the movements described in the study.

This variety of information is treated with the already well-known skill of Monitor Deloitte, global leader in strategic consulting for corporate strategy development based on scenarios. The ability to understand the multiple variables that will determine the paths of the oil and gas segment is fundamental to long-term planning. We have the ability to understand the current scenario, apprehend which fundamental forces will act on this scenario in the next years and to support the industry in constructing multidisciplinary strategies.

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