Coronavirus impact monitor

Innehåll i senaste upplagan (publicerad 27 april 2020)

Corona virus outbreak

• Slowdown in Europe, the US still in acceleration phase, relatively high but stable level of cases and fatalities in Sweden

Impact on financial markets

• European equity markets suffering major losses
• European rate and credit markets also affected
• US credit markets experiencing major disruptions 

Impact on commodity markets

• Exceptionally low oil prices affected by both demand and supply disruptions with metals still relatively steady

Real economic impact

• Declining confidence indicators signal far more severe economic situation than initially predicted by the Ministry of Finance

Economic Outlook

• Sharp drop in GDP across the world in 2020 means return to pre-virus levels only after 2021
• The Swedish economy faring potentially even worse than initially forecasted, with the Government set to announce additional measures

Appendix: Industry Outlook

Financial Services

• Major Swedish banks maintaining comfortable capital positions and seeing regulatory support
• Low liquidity in bond markets see some Swedish mutual funds freeze redemptions while equity funds experience large outflows

Metals & Mining

• Suppliers to the mining industry likely to experience lower demand even as metal prices hold steady

Manufacturing

• Efforts to contain COVID-19 impact short-term manufacturing output and demand

Automotive

• The Automotive industry plunges due to severe supply chain issues

Consumer products: Non-Food

• Serious supply disruption, high consumer certain product categories with sales moving online