Streaming providers have moved from challengers to challenged

The streaming revolution has disrupted not just the delivery of TV and films. It has turned the entire entertainment industry upside down. Although Scandinavian consumers continue to have a big appetite for on-screen entertainment, the audience for streaming has become more cost-sensitive, and many consumers have reduced their monthly spending by moving on and off subscriptions.

In 2023, daily streaming of films and TV series has continued to increase across Scandinavia, with 36 per cent of Scandinavians now streaming daily (up from 31 per cent in 2022). Similarly, watching TV programmes on demand is also increasing, with 22 per cent of Scandinavians now doing so daily (up from 19 per cent in 2022).

The percentage of consumers watching traditional TV each day, however, fell from 22 per cent in 2022 to 20 per cent in 2023, although this percentage is similar to 2021. However, what stands out is that more Scandinavians now watch TV on demand rather than watch it live.

Figure 1. Daily on-screen entertainment
_{Below is a list of activities that you may do on your devices. Which, if any, of these do you do at least once a day?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: 2021 (n=2,001) 2022 (n=2,003) 2023 (n=1,981).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

As in previous years, media consumption varies considerably with age, and young Scandinavians are much more likely than older people to use streaming; but there has been a significant uptake of daily streaming across almost all age groups (except Scandinavians aged 65-75) between 2021 and 2023.

Figure 2. Daily streaming: Age
_{Below is a list of activities that you may do on your devices. Which, if any, of these do you do at least once a day? (The figure shows the respondents who chose “Stream films/series”)}

_{Base: All adults 16-75. Base size: 16-17, 2023 (n=76) 18-24, 2021 (n=2,049) 2022 (n=2,039) 2023 (n=231) 25-34, 2021 (n=3,072) 2022 (n=3,056) 2023 (n=379) 35-44, 2021 (n=353) 2022 (n=356) 2023 (n=374) 45-54, 2021 (n=378) 2022 (n=390) 2023 (n=376) 55-64, 2021 (n=314) 2022 (n=336) 2023 (n=359) 65-75, 2021 (n=335) 2022 (n=326) 2023 (n=300).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

Geography also plays a role. Danish, Swedish and Norwegian media consumers are offered a slightly differing mix of local and international platforms. Norwegian consumers seem to enjoy the abundance of streaming services now available, with 39 per cent in this year’s survey streaming film or TV every day (up from 26 per cent in 2021).

Many factors may have contributed to this steep increase, but one is surely the current ‘golden age’ of Norwegian TV productions and its success with especially young and male audiences. The Norwegian increase is driven in particular by 18-24 year-olds and men as well as an overall increase across all audiences up to the age of 55. As noted by the Nordic Film & TV Fond, Norwegian drama has enjoyed phenomenal success over recent years, especially with teen sensation SKAM and young billionaire dark drama Exit reaching millions of viewers both domestically, but also globally, and with other shows collecting major distinctions, such as Atlantic Crossing (International Emmy 2021), Countrymen (Cannes Series 2021 Special Prize) and Afterglow (Prix Europa 2022).¹

Swedish consumers are not far behind. 37 per cent of Swedish consumers stream film or TV every day, compared to 28 per cent two years ago. And consumption in Denmark is also on the rise: 31 per cent now use streaming services every day compared to just 22 per cent in 2021.

Figure 3. Daily on-screen entertainment: Country
_{Below is a list of activities that you may do on your devices. Which, if any, of these do you do at least once a day?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: Norway, 2021 (n=503) 2022 (n=503) 2023 (n=499) Sweden, 2021 (n=953) 2022 (n=954) 2023 (n=941) Denmark, 2021 (n=545) 2022 (n=546) 2023 (n=541).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

Streaming subscription fatigue hits Scandinavia

With such strong demand for entertainment, you would think that Scandinavia should be a very attractive market for local and global providers of subscription video on demand (SVOD). However, a big question is whether Scandinavian consumers are willing to pay for subscriptions, or whether they are switching to cheaper or free alternatives. And it is not good news for streaming providers: fewer Scandinavians have access to a paid video streaming service than a year ago, with the numbers falling from 81 per cent in 2022 to 73 per cent in 2023 − a significant decline.

Figure 4. Access to SVOD services
_{Which, if any, of the following paid digital subscription services do you have access to? (The figure shows the respondents who have access to at least one video streaming service)}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: 2021 (n=4,000) 2022 (n=4,000) 2023 (n=3,994).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

Comparing these numbers to countries outside Scandinavia, we clearly see that other streaming markets are also in decline, especially in the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Belgium which all show visible signs of subscription fatigue. Across the 12 countries shown in figure 5 below, only Austria and Japan show increasing SVOD access, while the UK market for now remains stable.

Figure 5. Access to SVOD services: Country
_{Which, if any, of the following paid digital subscription services do you have access to? (The figure shows the respondents who have access to at least one video streaming service)}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: Norway, 2022 (n=1,000) 2023 (n=999) Sweden, 2022 (n=1,908) 2023 (n=1,995) Denmark, 2022 (n=1,092) 2023 (n=1,000) Netherlands, 2022 (n=2,000) 2023 (n=2,000) United Kingdom, 2022 (n=4,011) 2023 (n=4,000) Italy, 2022 (n=2,000) 2023 (n=2,000) Austria, 2022 (n=1,000) 2023 (n=1,000) Germany, 2022 (n=2,000) 2023 (n=2,000) Belgium, 2022 (n=2,000) 2023 (n=2,000) Japan, 2022 (n=2,000) 2023 (n=2,000).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

What is also likely to concern streaming providers is that the subscription fatigue seems to be driven largely by mid-age and older consumers who would normally be the most financially stable. However in this current period of high inflation, many consumers are clearly making necessary adjustments to their spending, and streaming access could be one of those household budget items that is nice-to-have, but not need-to-have.

Figure 6. Access to SVOD services: Age
_{Which, if any, of the following paid digital subscription services do you have access to? (The figure shows the respondents who have access to at least one video streaming service)}

_{Base: All adults 16-75. Base size: 16-17, 2023 (n=131) 18-24, 2022 (n=487) 2023 (n=473) 25-34, 2022 (n=752) 2023 (n=790) 35-44, 2022 (n=709) 2023 (n=712) 45-54, 2022 (n=758) 2023 (n=760) 55-64, 2022 (n=651) 2023 (n=689) 65-75, 2022 (n=644) 2023 (n=645).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

As the world churns

When there is churn among Scandinavian subscribers, streaming providers not only lose subscription revenues but might also even fail to recoup their acquisition costs for subscribers who cancel early. While many streamers want to raise the cost of premium subscriptions, opportunistic audiences are churning and returning, although at lower rates than in the previous two years.

In our 2023 survey, 26 per cent of Scandinavian consumers said that they (or someone else in their household) had cancelled an existing subscription to a video streaming service in the past 12 months (up from 20 per cent in 2021).

Figure 7. Cancelling subscriptions
_{In the last 12 months, have you or someone else in your household subscribed to any paid subscriptions for a video streaming service (e.g. Netflix, Disney+), or cancelled any existing ones? (The figure shows the respondents who have cancelled a video streaming service)}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: 2021 (n=4,000) 2022 (n=4,000) 2023 (n=3,994).
Note: Multiple choice question.}


When looking at new subscriptions and re-subscriptions, only 27 per cent of Scandinavian consumers had subscribed or re-subscribed to an SVOD service during the previous 12 months, down from 34 per cent in 2022.

Figure 8. SVOD services subscribers and re-subscribers: Yearly development
_{In the past 12 months, have you or someone else in your household subscribed to any paid subscriptions for a video streaming service (e.g. Netflix, Disney+), or canceled an existing ones? (The figure shows the respondents who subscribed to a new video streaming service and/or have re-subscribed to a previously cancelled video streaming service)}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: 2021 (n=4,000) 2022 (n=4,000) 2023 (n=4,069).
Note: Multiple choice question.}


Age is also a factor. Churn is driven primarily by young consumers who are more likely to cancel a subscription and re-subscribe later. For example, 36 per cent of Scandinavian consumers aged 25 to 34 had cancelled a subscription during the previous 12 months compared to only 16 per cent of consumers aged 55 to 64.

However, as figure 9 shows, the differences between cancellations and subscriptions are more or less similar across the various age groups. Young consumers are apparently quick to leave a streaming service, but they are also more easily persuaded to come back. What will be interesting to see in the coming years is whether today’s young consumers continue this behaviour into their adult life, or if it is simply attributable to age and their time of life.

Figure 9. Cancelling and subscribing: Age
_{In the last 12 months, have you or someone else in your household subscribed to any paid subscriptions for a video streaming service (e.g. Netflix, Disney+), or cancelled any existing ones?}

_{Base: All adults 16-75. Base size: 16-17, 2023 (n=131) 18-24, 2023 (n=473) 25-34, 2023 (n=790) 35-44, 2023 (n=712) 45-54, 2023 (n=760) 55-64, 2023 (n=689) 65-75, 2023 (n=645).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

Netflix dominates the market

Looking at the overall Scandinavian market, Netflix has continued its dominance in 2023, with 55 per cent of Norwegian consumers, 50 per cent of Swedish consumers and 48 per cent of Danish consumers enjoying a Netflix subscription either directly or through a bundle.

Figure 10. Access to SVOD services: Country
_{Which, if any, of the following digital subscription services do you have access to?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: Norway (n=999) Sweden (n=1,905) Denmark (n=1,090).
Note: Multiple choice question.}


The numbers become even more interesting when they are tracked over time. Looking at the past five years, it is evident that the Scandinavian streaming market is in constant motion, with new players entering and ‘old’ players fighting to maintain their market share. For example, Netflix, Viaplay and HBO Max saw a decline in their market share in 2023.

Figure 11. Access to SVOD services
_{Which, if any, of the following digital subscription services do you have access to?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: (Netflix, Viaplay, HBO Max, Disney+, Prime Video, C More, Discovery+, YouTube Premium: 2018 (n=2,074) 2019 (n=2,071) 2020 (n=2,071) 2021 (n=2,092) 2022 (n=2,092) 2023 (n=2,089). (TV Play DK): 2021 (n=1,092) 2022 (n=1,092) 2023 (n=1,090). (TV Play NO): 2021 (n=1,000) 2022 (n=1,000) 2023 (n=999).
Note: Multiple choice question. Sweden is not included in the graph due to a lack of data on some brands.}

Some players have failed to break through to a mainstream audience (Prime Video, Youtube Premium and Apple TV+ are examples), but other players such as Viaplay, HBO Max and Disney+ have been relatively successful, with around one-third of Scandinavian consumers currently having access to them.

TV2 Play has been successful in the Danish market although its subscription has declined between 2022 and 2023; and TV2 Play in Norway (not related to the Danish service) has grown its subscription base between 2022 and 2023, the only streaming service to do so besides Disney+.

Subscription sharing is still a problem

While streaming providers fight against churn and rising production costs, they also face problems with people sharing subscriptions.

In Scandinavia, many consumers are apparently still willing to share their login credentials, so that family and friends can save money. Just under half of Scandinavian subscriptions for Netflix, HBO and Disney+ are currently shared by two or more households.

Figure 12. Subscription sharing: Brands
_{You mentioned that you have access to a video subscription account. Including your own, approximately how many households share each of the following accounts?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75 who have access to this paid video subscription service and did not answer “Do not know”. Base size: Netflix, 2023 (n=1,959) HBO Max, 2023 (n=1,287) Disney+, 2023 (n=1,177).}

About 50 per cent of current Scandinavian ‘free riders’ would be unwilling to pay for their own subscription if subscription sharing was banned by the large streaming providers.

Figure 13. Willingness to pay if subscription sharing was banned
_{If each of the following video streaming companies were to ban multiple households from using the same account, would you be more likely to take out a subscription in your own name, more likely to stop using the service entirely, or are you not sure?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75 who have access to this paid video subscription service that is paid for by someone outside of their household. Base size: Netflix, 2023 (n=194) HBO Max, 2023 (n=140) Disney+, 2023 (n=147).}

Although the problem is difficult to resolve, companies are not completely powerless when it comes to subscription sharing, and various methods for reducing sharing are being tested in different markets.² For example, in 2023 Netflix ended free password sharing in the US, Canada, New Zealand and some other countries, using techniques such as IP address detection, location data and account activity to monitor whether subscribers are obeying by the rules.³ However, Netflix also incentivises subscribers to do the right thing by allowing them to pay for an extra member for a small fee⁴ – and it is a strategy that seems to be working. By October 2023, Netflix reported an addition of 9 million new global subscribers since cracking down on password-sharing, while also beating market expectations with its earnings figures.⁵

In the summer of 2023, Disney+ announced a similar strategy for reducing subscription sharing, first warning Canadian users that unlawful sharing outside one’s own household might lead to the company terminating the subscription. In Norway, a similar warning went out to all Disney+ subscribers in mid-October 2023,⁶ and according to the CEO of the Walt Disney Company, Bob Iger, other markets will follow either in late 2023 or during 2024.⁷ The move comes after Disney+ also announced substantial price increases by the end of 2023, but with a brand new option of allowing consumers to choose a cheaper advertising-based subscription (AVOD) at approximately half the premium subscription price.⁸ Whether this shake-up of prices and conditions will lead to more Scandinavian Disney+ subscribers, we will see in 2024.

The success of national broadcasters

While streaming providers fight for their share of the Scandinavian household entertainment budget, national broadcasters have accomplished a digital transformation and have secured a strong position in the TV and video ecosystem. Most broadcasters have evolved into digital platforms, establishing direct customer relationships and delivering on-demand content, while also offering recommendation functions that were previously only offered by the digital platform companies.

Scandinavian national broadcasters enjoy huge success in their respective markets. SVT Play, for example, is used by 78 per cent of Swedish consumers, NRK TV is used by 73 per cent of Norwegian consumers, and 64 per cent of Danish consumers use DRTV. Filmstriben, owned and operated by the Danish public libraries, also enjoys popularity, while the free ad-supported streaming service Pluto TV (not a national public broadcaster) is now used by approximately one in ten Scandinavian consumers.

Figure 14. Use of free streaming services: Country
_{Which, if any, of the following free video streaming services do you currently use?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: Norway, 2023 (n=999) Sweden, 2023 (n=1,905) Denmark, 2023 (n=1,090).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

What is more, national broadcasters have been successful in building a broad viewer base across all age groups, whereas the international commercial streaming services cater primarily to younger consumers and are struggling to attract older target audiences. However, it is important to keep in mind that market penetration is measured differently for the two types of video streaming providers. This strategy of ‘public service in the digital age’ continues to unfold. For example, the Danish national broadcaster has recently announced a plan to implement mandatory login to its services,⁹ not for users to pay, but to allow DRTV to provide personalised content that is hopefully even more engaging for various segments of viewers, ranging from small children to senior citizens.

Figure 15. Free and paid streaming services: Age
_{International commercial streaming services: Which, if any, of the following digital subscription services do you have access to? National broadcast streaming services: Which, if any, of the following free video streaming services do you currently use?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: (Netflix, HBO Max and Disney+): 18-24, 2023 (n=464) 25-34, 2023 (n=776) 35-44, 2023 (n=699) 45-54, 2023 (n=746) 55-64, 2023 (n=676) 65-75, 2023 (n=663). (NRK TV): 18-24, 2023 (n=118) 25-34, 2023 (n=192) 35-44, 2023 (n=184) 45-54, 2023 (n=190) 55-64, 2023 (n=166) 65-75, 2023 (n=148). (SVT Play and TV4 Play): 18-24, 2023 (n=222) 25-34, 2023 (n=403) 35-44, 2023 (n=353) 45-54, 2023 (n=665) 55-64, 2023 (n=331) 65-75, 2023 (n=321). (DRTV): 18-24, 2023 (n=123) 25-34, 2023 (n=183) 35-44, 2023 (n=162) 45-54, 2023 (n=190) 55-64, 2023 (n=178) 65-75, 2023 (n=164).
Note: Multiple choice questions.}

Spotify dominates audio subscription

Scandinavian consumers are also accustomed to paying for music and audio – a market dominated largely by Spotify, although its numbers show some signs of customer fatigue. 46 per cent of Scandinavian consumers say that they have access to Spotify. This number was 48 per cent in 2021 and peaked at 51 per cent in 2022.

Figure 16. Access to audio subscriptions
_{Music: Which, if any, of the following digital subscription services do you have access to? Please also consider subscriptions paid for by other people that you can access, such as other members of your household or family, or by your job.
Podcast/audiobook: Which, if any, of the following digital podcast or audiobook subscription services do you have access to?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: (music brands): 2023 (n=3,994) 2022 (n=4,000) 2021 (n=4,000). (podcast/audiobook brands): 2023 (n=1,981).
Note: Multiple choice questions.}

Despite the slowdown for Spotify, other audio providers are struggling to find a foothold. Many companies have a market share in single digits and do not show any year-on-year growth at all. What is more, Spotify launched audiobook access in late 2022 and continues to dominate the podcast segment.

Figure 17. Access to audio subscriptions: Country
_{Music: Which, if any, of the following digital subscription services do you have access to? Please also consider subscriptions paid for by other people that you can access, such as other members of your household or family, or by your job. Podcast/audiobook: Which, if any, of the following digital podcast or audiobook subscription services do you have access to?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75. Base size: (music brands): Norway, 2023 (n=999) Sweden, 2023 (n=1,905) Denmark, 2023 (n=1,090). (podcast/audiobook brands): Norway, 2023 (n=499) Sweden, 2023 (n=941) Denmark, 2023 (n=541).
Note: Multiple choice questions.}

Will bundles affect profitability even more?

Many Scandinavian consumers have access to both video streaming and audio services through a bundle – ranging from 16 per cent of consumers who have access to Amazon/Prime Video to 50 per cent of consumers who have access to SkyShowtime. Although bundling can be an easy way to acquire new subscribers, it can also affect profits, because bundling typically comes with a discount. It also takes away the direct contact between providers and consumers, especially if the technical setup only allows the consumer to access content through a link from the bundle provider, rather than going directly to the relevant platform.

Figure 18. Access to streaming service through a bundle
_{Which, if any, of the following streaming services do you have access to through a bundle? (The figure shows share of users who have access through a bundle)}

_{Base: All adults 18-75 who have access to the service. Base size: SkyShowtime, 2023 (n=262) TV2Play (NO), 2023 (n=407) C More, 2023 (n=554) Viaplay, 2023 (n=1,272) TV2Play (DK), 2023 (n=358) HBO Max, 2023 (n=1,336) Netflix, 2023 (n=2,031) Discovery+, 2023 (n=580) YouTube Premium, 2023 (n=201) Spotify Premium, 2023 (n=1,818) Apple TV+, 2023 (n=256) Disney+, 2023 (n=1,226) Amazon/Prime Video, 2023 (n=408).
Note: Multiple choice question.}

Interestingly, up to two-thirds of consumers who access a service through a bundle say they would pay directly to the provider if the service was not included in their bundle.

Figure 19. Willingness to pay if bundle access was discontinued
_{If the following providers were not included in the bundle, would you pay for a subscription directly with the provider, or not?}

_{Base: All adults 18-75 who have access to the paid subscription service through a bundle. Base size: YouTube Premium, 2023 (n=50) Netflix, 2023 (n=599) Amazon/Prime Video, 2023 (n=64) TV2Play (DK), 2023 (n=169) Disney+, 2023 (n=251) Viaplay, 2023 (n=585) HBO Max, 2023 (n=469) C More, 2023 (n=260) Apple TV+, 2023 (n=56) Discovery+, 2023 (n=155) TV2Play (NO), 2023 (n=192) SkyShowtime, 2023 (n=132) Spotify Premium, 2023 (n=452) YouSee Musik, 2023 (n=116).}

Given this clear market potential, will streaming and audio providers continue to accept the market erosion created by bundles, or is bundling a necessary evil to reduce churn in a saturated market?

The only thing that seems certain is that the highly dynamic Scandinavian media market will continue to be characterised by emerging new offerings, disruptive digital players and changing consumer behaviours. The strategic moves by global platforms and national broadcasters alike will be crucial factors influencing the future market landscape. What they decide today will have major effects on their future consumer relationships, the market structure and technological standards.

_{¹ https://nordiskfilmogtvfond.com/news/stories/norwegian-drama-success-decoded-and-celebrated-at-tv-drama-vision
² https://nerdist.com/article/netflix-stopping-password-sharing-with-price-increases/
³ https://cybernews.com/how-to-use-vpn/bypass-netflix-password-sharing-restrictions/
⁴ https://about.netflix.com/en/news/an-update-on-sharing
⁵ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12646839/Netflix-subscribers-password-sharing-crackdown-revenue.html
⁶ https://www.tek.no/nyheter/nyhet/i/69QOzz/disney-vil-stoppe-abonnementsdeling-i-norge
⁷ https://www.computerworld.dk/art/283858/foelger-i-netflix-fodspor-nu-vil-disney-ogsaa-slaa-ned-paa-deling-af-adgangskoder
⁸ https://politiken.dk/kultur/film_og_tv/art9472700/Disney-hæver-prisen
⁹ https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/kultur/snart-kraever-det-et-login-se-drs-programmer-drtv-bliver-foerst-godt-naar-man-logger}