Deloitte’s 2013 Predictions: PC Domination, Password Vulnerability and LTE Kick-Off

“This year’s predictions cover a range of topics, from the continued dominance of personal computers despite inferior sales relative to smart devices, the developments around LTE mobile Internet technology, and data access, to smartphones and the vulnerability of passwords,” said Peter Horovčák, Senior Manager, Consulting, Deloitte.

Deloitte predicts that in 2013 more than 90% of user-generated passwords, even those considered strong by IT departments, will be vulnerable to hacking. Inadequate password protection may result in billions of dollars of losses, declining confidence in Internet transactions and significant damage to the reputations of the companies compromised by attacks. “As the value of the information protected by passwords continues to grow, attracting more hack attempts, high-value sites will likely require additional forms of authentication”, said Ivan Lužica, Partner, Consulting, Deloitte.

There will also be an upsurge in momentum behind LTE, with 2013 being the first year in which LTE thrives across multiple markets. The subscriber base will triple to 200 million by year end, and those on LTE tariffs will represent about 10% of all service revenues. Usage of LTE will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary: the major benefits of subscribing to LTE from 3G are likely to be better performance from existing applications from e-mail to updating social networks.

Additional highlights of this year’s TMT predictions to impact the marketplace in 2013 include:

·         A billion smartphones should ship for the first time ever — Usage, however, will become increasingly varied, with a growing number of smartphone owners (about 400 million out of an installed base of 1.9 billion by year-end) who rarely or never connect their devices to data.

·         The PC is not dead — Of total sales of PCs, tablets and smartphones in 2013, PCs will be about one fifth. However, more than 80% of Internet traffic measured in bits will continue to be generated on traditional personal computers (desktops and laptops). Of the total time spent at home and at work on PCs, tablets and smartphones combined, more than 70% will be on a PC.

·         “Mobile advertising” thrives, led by tablets, but smartphone display lags — “Mobile” advertising — a category including tablets, smartphones and feature phones — should grow by 50% to reach $9 billion globally. In 2013, the smartphone sector may generate $4.9 billion in revenues, while advertising on tables may generate $3.4 billion. Revenue per unit, however, reveals a different dynamic: smartphone display ad revenues are forecast at $7 per tablet and $0.60 per smartphone (including in-app ads).

·         4K kicks off — 2013 will be the year in which the television industry starts preparing in earnest for the next iteration of high definition (HD) known as 4K, which offers four times the resolution of the current highest standard HD TV. The full roll-out of 4K will take years: in 2013, 4K will be in very few living rooms. There will be no 4K broadcasts in 2013, and there is little content so far. About 20 types of TV sets will be available to those wishing to spend $15,000 - $25,000 on a set.

·         Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks — Crowdfunding portals will raise $3 billion globally, a 100% increase over 2011.

·         Enterprise Social Networks (ESN): Another tool, but not yet a panacea — More than 90% of Fortune 500 companies will have selectively or fully implemented an ESN by the end of 2013, a 70% increase over 2011. Of those who register, only a third will read content once a week or more and just 40% will make an ESN post in the average month.

·         Bring your own computer — Very few additional companies will adopt a bring-your-own-computer (BYOC) policy where the employer pays for the PC. At the same time, 50% of Fortune 500 companies will allow employees to bring their own personally-owned and paid for computers.

·         All you can app — Between 50 and 100 mobile operators will offer all-you-can-eat services with unlimited access to a specific application — a middle ground between unrestricted all-you-can-eat tariffs and metered data charging.

Full details about the global TMT Predictions are available here: www.deloitte.com/Predictions2013

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