Responding amid a Disrupted Recovery
An evolving perspective on the economic impacts of unkind COVID-19
The Omicron variant spreads so quickly and generally causes milder symptoms in vaccinated people than its predecessors. Although some countries are willingly letting infections balloon to high levels and learn to live with the pandemic, economic scars and Long-Covid are still needed to be monitored.
According to the January 2022 IMF World Economic Outlook, the global economy enters in a weaker position in 2022 due to caseloads of Omicron, mobility restrictions, rising energy prices, and supply disruptions. The world economy is forecasted to grow at 4.4% in 2022, and slow to 3.8% in 2023. Inflation is also higher than anticipated. United State hits another 40-year high of 7.9%. Meanwhile, China’s zero-Covid and weaker property sector also limited their economic growth.
With the pandemic continuing to disrupt economic recovery, an effective global health strategy should be emphasised more than ever. Worldwide access to vaccines, tests, and treatments is crucial to reduce the risk of further COVID-19 variants. Monetary policy in several countries would continue on a tightening path to curb inflation pressures, while fiscal policy would need to prioritise health and social spending while also supporting on the those worst affected areas.
Thailand’s economy is forecasted a gradual recovery owing to domestic spending and higher foreign tourists. KKP Research predicted that the economy will grow at 3.2% for 2022. However, exports would be impacted by supply disruption. Under Thai economy’s uncertainty, monitoring and responding the impact from Omicron, Russia and Ukraine war, private sector confidence, and government measures are crucial factors for economic recovery.
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