Perspectives
Complicated Outlook on Interest Rates
Economies show signs of cooling but bank failures, inflation, war in Ukraine, and weak employment in China still pressure to the economic growth.
Executive Summary
Making deals now seems as difficult as early of Covid-19
According to the January 2023 IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report, the world continues to face challenges from the, cost-of-living crisis, Russia invasion to Ukraine, and a slowdown in China. IMF also estimated that the global economy grew at 3.4% in 2022, and would plummet to 2.9% in 2023. With high inflation worldwide, especially in the US and major European economies, this has been also triggering a tightening in global financial conditions.
On the bright side, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are feasible and China’s recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.
Thailand’s economy is forecasted a recovery mainly owing to increasing tourism activities and recovering private consumption. NESDC concluded that Thai economy grew at 2.6% in 2022 and would rebound to 3.2% this year. However, under Thai economy’s uncertainty, high household debt, inflation pressure, and the spillover effects from Russia-Ukraine war are crucial factors for economic recovery.
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