Moderate global growth amid tariff uncertainty

Executive Summary

Recent indicators suggest a moderation in global growth prospects, with weakened business and consumer sentiment in several countries. Inflationary pressures persist, while policy uncertainty and significant risks remain. A key concern is the further fragmentation of the global economy.

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook Report projected the global growth of 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026 which is below the historical average of 3.7% recorded from 2000 to 2019. Global headline inflation is projected to decrease to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.5% in 2026, returning to target levels sooner in advanced economies compared to emerging markets and developing economies.

Medium-term risks are skewed downward, while near-term risks diverge. Upside risks could somewhat boost U.S. growth, but other countries face downside risks due to policy uncertainty.

Thailand's 2025 economic growth is projected at 2.8% driven primarily by continued expansion of domestic consumption and the tourism. Private and public investments are expected to make a greater contribution to Thailand's GDP. Nevertheless, household debt remains high, with a rise in non-performing loans. In light of the prevailing economic and political uncertainty, particularly stemming from the Trump administration's tariff policies, it is essential to remain informed about global economic trends and their potential implications.

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