Thailand Economic Outlook


Global Inflation Cools, Paving Way for Steady Growth

Calmer Economic Waters Ahead: Inflation subsides, growth trajectory maintained.

Executive Summary

Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and the cost-of-living crisis, the global economy is demonstrating a surprising degree of resilience in its recovery.

According to the January 2024 IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report, global growth outlook is projected at 3.1% for 2024, thanks to surprises from more resilient US and emerging economies, plus China's fiscal support. Inflation is falling faster than expected, projected at 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, easing recession fears. However, tight monetary policy and geopolitical risks still cast shadows.

The global economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. While downside risks remain, the easing of supply chain issues and the potential for faster disinflation could lead to higher-than-expected growth. However, overly accommodative fiscal policy could backfire later, highlighting the need for a balanced approach.

Thailand’s 2023 economic recovery was downgraded to 1.9% by lower-than-expected demand and foreign tourism spending, subdued export, and delayed state budget planning. NESDC predicted that Thai economy would grow only 2.2-3.2% this year, mainly driven by the continuous expansion of domestic consumption and tourism sector. Still, the Thai economic recovery hinges on several key factors, including domestic uncertainties, sluggish growth abroad, potential disruptions from geopolitical tensions, and the burden of elevated household debt.



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