Global Predictions 2017

Prints charming: biometric security reaches the billions. Deloitte Global predicts that the active base of fingerprint-reader-equipped devices will top one billion for the first time in early 2017. There are multiple private and public organizations which should consider how best to exploit the growing base of fingerprint readers and the large number of individuals who have become accustomed to using them on their phones.

DDoS attacks enter the terabit era. Deloitte Global predicts in 2017, Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, a form of cyberattack, will become larger in scale, harder to mitigate and more frequent. Over the past few years, it has been a game of cat and mouse in which neither side has become too powerful, but this might change in 2017 due to the abundance of insecure IoT devices and the fact that large-scale attacks which exploit IoT devices' vulnerabilities have become simpler to execute.

Safety first: the road to self-driving starts with a stop. Deloitte Global predicts that by 2022, annual US motor vehicle fatalities could fall by 6,000. Although there are other motor vehicle safety technologies that are likely to contribute to this reduction, the single greatest factor will be automatic emergency braking (AEB) technologies.

5G: a revolution in evolution, even in 2017. The technology building blocks for 5G readiness are being deployed in 2017, and in some markets are already in place. 5G is likely to have a big bang impact. Its long fuse, which incorporates interim milestones in the forms of LTE-A and LTE-A Pro, has already been lit. While 5G is a significant, complex upgrade to 4G, it is not a single-step upgrade from the first release of 4G, but rather the culmination of many years of sustained upgrades to 4G networks.

Brains at the edge: machine learning goes mobile. In 2017, over 300 million smartphones will have on-board neural network machine-learning capability. This functionality will enhance applications including indoor navigation, image classification, augmented reality, speech recognition and language translation even where there is little or no cellular or Wi-Fi connectivity, such as in remote areas, underground or on an airplane. Where there is connectivity, on-board machine learning may allow tasks to be done better and faster, or with more privacy.

The great indoors: the final frontier for digital navigation. By 2022, at least a quarter of all uses of precision digital navigation will include an indoor leg or be for an entirely indoor journey. Growth will be stimulated by sustained improvements in the accuracy of indoor navigation over the medium term. Precise indoor navigation's potential is significant, is likely to benefit most vertical sectors, and have impacts on government, businesses and consumers alike.

TV advertising in the US: flat is the new up. Deloitte Global predicts that US TV advertising revenue in 2017 will be flat with 2016. For an industry widely thought to be following the sharply negative trend of other traditional media, flat is the new up. Although traditional TV advertising is not growing as rapidly as it used to and is losing share to digital, it still remains an important advertising medium.

Have we reached peak tablet? In 2017, we predict that sales of tablets will be fewer than 160 million units, suggesting that we have passed the peak demand for these devices. Tellingly, there is no dominant compelling use case for these devices. Across a range of online activities, tablets have their fans, but there is no single activity where tablets are the preferred device.

Vinyl: the billion-dollar nostalgic niche. Deloitte Global predicts that vinyl will continue its resurgence and may approach $1 billion globally in revenues for the first time this millennium. Today, for many buyers, the record has become a collectible, a memento, a proudly physical format and an expression of individuality in an increasingly digital world.

IT-as-a-Service: the half trillion dollar 'niche'. Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2018, spending on IT-as-a-Service will be just under $550 billion worldwide. For many enterprises, large and small, IT-as-a-Service is appealing for several reasons. It avoids significant capital expenditures and provides a predictable expense based on actual use which is easily scaled up or down, based on business needs.